While just about every pundit and political commentator (myself included) is stunned by the Clinton comeback last night, the unsaid story is that John McCain may have been the biggest winner of the evening (and not because he finally wrapped up the Republican nomination).
Simply put, the longer the Democrats continue to battle and expend funds (they will collectively spend more than $25 million over the next 3 weeks) and energy attacking each other, the better it is for John McCain. While I am a firm believer in the concept that a hard-fought campaign tends to improve and hone the ultimate winner’s political skill-set, I think we have crossed the line with the Clinton-Obama battle.
From this point forward-with the possible exception of the fact that it will keep the Democrats in the spotlight-virtually every aspect of a protracted Clinton-Obama campaign will be a net negative for the ultimate nominee. Yes, the general election is still the Democrats’ to lose. But the ongoing battle between these two heavyweights may prove to weigh one of them down in the fall. The next eight weeks (and possibly the next three months) may be awfully harmful for Democrats in November and give the McCain team some much-needed time to gather itself, lay out a strategy and raise funds.
She is Back
The Clinton campaign spent this last week reversing several of the trends and tendencies we cited in our last email…and she benefited from all of them. Here is how Clinton came back in the last 10 days:
- They switched from defense to offense. The Clinton team not only took the gloves off but, more importantly, they did it strategically. They launched a very powerful ad (”3 AM”) that went after Obama by asking the question “It’s 3 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep. But there’s a phone in the White House, and it’s ringing. Something’s happened in the world…who do you want answering the phone?” Interestingly, they only ran this ad in Texas. In Ohio, they ran an economic message that resonated with the voters there.
- Clinton gave voters in Texas and Ohio a reason to vote for her. Clinton refocused herself and explained why a vote for her is important. This was critical. Early in this campaign Team Clinton relied on her resume. Over the last two months-and, in particular, the last two weeks-she articulated the difference between her and Obama. And it worked.
- She has sharpened her message. Clinton is now running a two-pronged campaign based on national security experience and the economy.
Additionally, some environmental factors helped to propel Clinton yesterday:
- Texas and Ohio were always her states to lose. She had 20-point leads in both states as recently as two weeks ago, and these were states far more favorable for her (from a demographic perspective) than many of the states Obama won over the past three weeks. But what she did was hold back the Obama surge and blunt his momentum.
- Obama handled several questions poorly in the waning days of the campaign. The Rezko trial and questions about the Obama campaign contacting Canadian officials to downplay his campaign rhetoric about NAFTA put him on the defensive and took him off-message.
- Clinton “won” the weekend news cycle. We began to see the tide turn on Monday with several polls showing a Clinton uptick, suggesting that the late-deciders were moving in her direction.
Late Deciders and Getting Back her Base
Exit poll data confirmed all of the above. Those who decided “late” (i.e. within the last three days) broke for Clinton by just about 2 to 1. And she reestablished a coalition (Hispanic voters, women, older voters) that had been drifting to Obama over the past few weeks.
Pennsylvania
Looking ahead at Pennsylvania, the latest numbers show a solid Clinton lead (though Obama has been gaining ground) in a state that should be-like Ohio-favorable toward her and her message.
We’ll be back next Monday.
Tags: Barack Obama, Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton by Steve Lombardo
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