Could it be that Obama Under-Polls?
Posted on March 4, 2008 at 9:33 am by Steve Lombardo
The rolling tracking data prior to the Wisconsin Democratic primary showed Obama with a 3-5 point lead. A compositie of polls taken the day before showed Obama with only a 4 percent lead. Yet he won by 17 points. What happened.
While there are several possible explanations…one might be that Obama is drawing substantially from 18-29 year olds who are less likely to asnwer a telephone survey. While pollsters routinely “weight” such surveys…it may be that we are underepresenting younger voters in these polls and they are showing up in higher numbers than in the past.
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