Election Monitor 4/14/08: Obama Finds His Inner Kerry
Just when we thought it was safe to declare last week an Obama “win” (the reemergence of Bosnia really hurt Clinton), the Senator himself snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by saying the following at an April 6th fundraiser in San Francisco (which was widely reported on Friday evening and over the weekend):
- “You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. So it’s not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”
Let us be clear about the political implications of this. While this will hurt Obama in the short term in Pennsylvania, comments like this are potentially fatal in a general election. The problem for Obama is that it is part of a pattern, and voters look at patterns when making judgments about candidates. The cumulative effect of these remarks-combined with the Wright controversy and comments made by Michelle Obama about it being difficult to pay for piano lessons and the fact that the only time she has been proud of this country has been during her husband’s primary and caucus victories-suggests elitism. Voters are repelled by elitism.
Voters look for “cues” in making their decision, and this one is as big as the San Francisco Bay Bridge. Prior to the 2004 Presidential election, John Kerry led or tied George Bush on nearly ten major issue areas (including the economy and healthcare) but lost by more than 10 points on two deciding factors: national security and moral/family issues. Barrack Obama is in danger of morphing into John Kerry.
Sensing political blood in the water, team Clinton jumped on this over the weekend. This was an enormous political gift for them and they took advantage.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TeV2KzGGC38
Just a week ago a poll conducted by Quinnipiac University showed Clinton’s lead in Pennsylvania had shrunk from 12 points to 6 points (50% to 44%). This same poll showed that Obama had made most of his gains among white men without a college education.
The LCG average of the last 6 polls in PA suggests that Hillary’s lead on Friday of last week was approximately 7 points.
Obama was well within striking distance and the trend was in his direction.
Be looking for polls taken today through Wednesday which will serve as a good indicator of the “bitter” effect.
We will be back again next week and look for more commentary on our blog during the course of the week.
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