LCG Election Monitor Blog

Last night Clinton beat expectations, which-in case anyone wondered-is the name of the game in politics.  Clinton won Pennsylvania by 10 points after leading by 20 points 45 days ago.  However, the average of polls conducted the last 10 days including our own projection (which showed a 4 point win) indicated a single digit, 5-8 point victory.    Clinton over-performed, and that has created a media event that will give her some momentum.

In the midst of the current Hillary love-fest the facts remain clear; this is still Obama’s nomination to lose.  He has the lead in pledged delegates and popular vote.   However, he needs to change the current trajectory. 

Our sense is that Pennsylvania was a referendum on the Reverend Wright and “bitter/clinging” controversies.   Let’s be clear, the Wright controversy and Bittergate have had a damaging effect on the Obama campaign-particularly with working class voters-because these issues crystallize a problem they see with Obama: he doesn’t appear to be like them.  Barack Obama has a huge perception problem.  Clinton, against all odds, has connected with white, blue-collar voters in a way that Obama has not.  This is almost entirely about his inability to connect with the blue-collar, less affluent, less educated segment of the Democratic coalition.

Furthermore, Clinton is also viewed as tougher.  In a time when Americans want someone to fight (the economy, terrorism), the Obama of the last 30 days seems, to them, like a wimp.  Obama’s body language last night showed it.  His non-verbal communication is way off. 

While the exit polls should be taken with a grain of salt (more on that later) it is informative to look at how certain groups and regions voted:

• Obama lost white women by 32 points (Clinton 66%, Obama 34%) and white men by 12 points (Clinton 56%, Obama 44%).    Obama will never win when he’s losing white women by 30 points. 
• Clinton ran even in the Philadelphia suburbs.  Obama needed to win them by 10 points.  The game was over as soon as those numbers came in.  Clinton won Bucks County by an astounding 24 points.
• Clinton won Lackawanna County (Obama endorser Senator Bob Casey’s home) 74% to 26%. 
• She won among gun owner households and seniors by a 2 to 1 margin.

What happened to Obama?

1. Obama was taken off-message 30 days ago and has never regained his footing.  We have said it before: you do not win elections by playing defense.  What happened to hope and change?  For the time being, they’re gone. 
2. He allowed Clinton to own the economic message.  It seems that team Obama has allowed Clinton to be the messenger on the economy at a time that the economy is far and away the number one issue in America.  Bad decision and bad timing. 
3.  Obama over-polls.  As I mentioned earlier, there were problems with the exit polls.  The final wave showed Obama winning by 52 to 48%.  They were wrong.  Perhaps the polling technique (the probability model) was off, but we believe that there is an argument to be made that Obama over-polls in exit polling and, perhaps, in surveys prior to the election.  We have seen this happen to black candidates before but the assumption was that it was not occurring with Obama.  Since we have seen this occur in New Hampshire and Texas and now Pennsylvania, perhaps we need to take it into consideration moving forward.
4. He has been unable to expand his coalition.  Yes he gets the black vote, the youth vote, and the NPR vote - but he has been unable to go beyond that and it has hurt him.  Blacks represented only 10% of the vote yesterday.

Last night, Clinton apparently raised $2.5 million online.  Approximately 80% of that was from new donors.  While the math is still with Obama (he has more popular votes and more pledged delegates), he has a problem.  And it is not just that he lost last night but that he seems to be “losing”.  The swagger is gone.  Last night he did not look like the same candidate who gave a brilliant concession speech in NH three months ago. 

Indiana and North Carolina are On May 6^th.  If Obama loses Indiana, Clinton will not quit until the closing ceremony in Denver.

Tags: Barack Obama, Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton //