LCG Election Monitor Blog

The last thing that Barack Obama needed last week (other than the 41-point loss in West Virginia) was for the California Supreme Court to overrule a 2000 ballot initiative-approved by more than 60% of that state’s voters-that defined marriage as being between a man and a woman.  This decision essentially legalizes gay marriage in the largest state in the country.  Whatever you might think of the decision, it may, in the end, cost him electoral victories in key swing states this fall (think Michigan, Missouri and Ohio).The Clinton coalition is made up of seniors, women, Catholics and lower-income rural white voters.  While we believe that women are likely to move solidly into Obama’s column, he will have problems with seniors, Catholics and rural, lower-income white voters. These three voting segments are part of what became known as “Reagan Democrats” in the 1980s, and they voted with Bush in 2004.  The chart below comes from exit polls conducted in 2004. 

The problem for Obama is that the California Supreme Court vote-and the pressure it will put on his campaign-is layered onto his existing problems brought on by the Wright controversy and “bitter-gate.”  Obama already has a problem with cultural conservatives who feel that he is disconnected from their values.  Now the question is how this plays out in the coming weeks.  We have seen polling that suggests that the American public is becoming more and more accepting of gay marriage.  What we don’t know is what happens when and if this becomes a political issue and how the candidates navigate that issue in key swing states. 

Toxic Environment for the GOP

As we have said for months now, voters are extremely dissatisfied with the direction of the country.  The current political environment is toxic for the GOP.

Only 14% of Americans think that things are going in the right direction.  To characterize this as a “change election” may be a gross understatement.  Voter dissatisfaction with President Bush, the economy, the war, and Congress give this the look of a “transformative election.”

The latest NBC News/WSJ poll showed that Democrats have a 15-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot.  This is substantially worse than in 2006, when various polls had the Democratic advantage between 7 and 10 points.

This is what it comes down to:  If this election is about (and by that I mean what dominates the news every day) big ideas and the mood of the country then Obama will win.  If, on the other hand, the election is about personalities and “micro” issues then McCain can win.  It is really that simple.

Oh, and the person we haven’t talked about at all this morning will win the Kentucky Democratic primary by 30 points tomorrow.  Absurd and true.

Tags: 2008 General Election, Barack Obama by Steve Lombardo
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Republicans are in trouble in 2008.  Every indicator suggests that the  GOP is headed to electoral defeat.  While there are a number of weak areas for Republicans, nowhere is the issue most problematic than in the generic congressional ballot.  According to the latest NBC/WSJ poll Democrats have a 14 point lead over Republicans in the GCB.  They have had a significant lead since 2005. 

The issue is that voters have no reason to identify with Republicans and they have every reason (Katrina, the economy, the war, gas prices) to abandon ship.  Note that there is little evidence that voters are siding with Democrats because they are attracted to their ideas, rather they are abandoning Republicans because they have none.  And voters assume if they have none, they are in favor of the status quo.  This year, people do not want more of the same.

The way our for Repbulicans is to push forward an agenda with fundamental policy ideas that take Americans into the future.  Without such, they may be doomed to suffer more losses this cycle.

Tags: 2008 General Election, New Polling Data by Steve Lombardo
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The John Edwards endorsement of Obama was perfectly timed to step all over the “Hillary clobbers Obama in West Virginia” story.  The timing was brilliant.  There is little chance this was an accident.  Team Obama knew exactly what they were doing by holding this until Wednesday.  They stemmed whatever momentum Clinton had from her 40 point win. 

This is not just a nice tactic.  The implications from West Virginia are startling.  The fact that the Democratic nominee can only get one fourth (27%) of the vote in a Democratic primary this late in the game is very problematic.  Nearly three-fourths of Democrats in West Virginia could not and did not vote for the ultimate nominee.  The Edwards endorsement was designed to mute all of that.  It also sends a signal to superdelegates.  And Edwards will have an important role in a rural and blue collar, working-class state like Kentucky. 

Tags: Barack Obama, Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton by Steve Lombardo
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Every election is about a mix of several different things, including issues, strategic and tactical moves by the candidates and, of course, personalities.  So it would be simplistic to say that Presidential elections are about just one thing or another.  We do believe, however, that one common-and perhaps dominant- element of successful Presidential candidacies is the ability of a campaign to tap into the national mood and frame the candidate’s vision around that.  These campaigns often transcend issues and tactics (although those are important and often interwoven) and capture the national mindset.

These political advertising images represent some of those campaigns that were almost totally in sync with the national feeling.  Some, like Johnson’s “Daisy” and “Ice Cream” campaign ads, have become iconic in political advertising folklore.  But they don’t stand out because they were cutting-edge (although some were), but rather because they were spot-on and connected with voters.

Jimmy Carter’s campaign in 1976 was almost entirely about ethics in a post-Watergate environment.  The campaign tapped into voters’ yearnings for the return of honorable and hard-working people to politics. He represented himself as “of the people and for the people.”  When he told voters that he would not lie to them his campaign became almost completely synchronized with the national mood.  While President Ford almost came back, Carter held on to win because it was a change election in which the challenger captured the public mood. 

Running for reelection in 1984, Reagan recognized that the public was generally satisfied about the direction of the country and they wanted to take ownership of that.  Therefore, “Morning in America”-the Mike Deaver, Phil Dusenberry and Hal Riney ad-bundled facts about national prosperity with emotional patriotism.  The narrator (Riney himself) starts the ad with the line “It is morning again in America.”  The line was so good that they used it again at the end of the commercial. 

In 1992, Bill Clinton’s bio spot (featuring the picture of him meeting JFK) said that he represented a “new hope” and change.  It was a change election and the rallying cry of “It’s the economy, stupid” perfectly encapsulated the public’s anger with George H. W. Bush. 

What about 2008?

So the question we must ask is: what is the national mood for 2008?  Is it anger or weariness?  Is it hopeful or cautious?  Is it about our place in the world or about rebuilding America?  Is it about a “post-partisan” vision or is about redefining the weathered and frayed brands of the political parties?

More importantly, can a candidate or a candidacy define the national mood…or does the national mood define the candidate?  It is the proverbial chicken and egg.  We believe that the two presumptive candidates are people who are viewed as atypical political candidates and they both fit the post-partisan mood.  McCain went to Iowa in January and said that ethanol was not the answer.  Last week in Indiana Obama said that the “gas tax holiday” was short-sighted and bad policy.  Basically, much of this election will be determined by which of the two-McCain or Obama-can win the “political” battle without losing their “non-politician” appeal. 

We believe that the following is a concise picture of the country’s national mood:

• Tired of the war, gas prices, a stagnant economy and political gridlock
• Has evolved from post 2004-06 anger among Democrats to a weariness that is attitudinally embedded in an array of voting groups, including Independents, swing voters and even Republicans
• Worried about both their own personal economic security and the nation’s-both today and in the future

All of the above is reflected in the 80% “wrong track” polling data.  People want a national turnaround.  But voters almost always want it packaged in a vision for the future.  Look at the three words we have highlighted.  If voters are tired, weary and worried, they are basically adrift.  And if someone is adrift they need a lifeline.  The candidates have to give them hope but they also need to demonstrate that they can lead people to prosperity and security. 

Note that none of the above is about national security or foreign affairs.  Iraq is no longer a key driver in this election.  The war against terrorism has receded as an issue the more we are distanced from 9-11.  This, of course, could all change very rapidly.  Among the voting public there remains a dormant but politically powerful attitude that supports an aggressive posture against terrorism.   The question is whether it remains dormant.

Tags: 2008 General Election, Barack Obama, Campaign Spots, John McCain by Steve Lombardo
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We have said it before, the day to day battle during a primary season is almost all about expectations.  And on Tuesday, Obama beat expectations.  He won decisively in NC and came close in Indiana. 

How did Obama come so close in Indiana?  He was able to cut into Clinton’s core vote thereby limiting the margins she could run up among her demographic groups and in her areas of the state. 

For example, Clinton lost the Indianapolis metropolitan area by more than 15 points.  And while he did so because of his overwhelming victory among blacks he also cut into Clinton’s lead among white voters.  Exit polls show that Obama only lost white women by 20 points, far less than the 36 point margin Clinton had in PA.   Obama lost white Catholics by 22 points, again, far less than the 44 point margin Clinton ran up in PA.  Basically, by cutting into her margins with these demo groups and doing well in college towns and with black voters, Obama almost stole IN and beat the pundit betting line. 

Tags: Barack Obama, Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton, New Polling Data, Uncategorized by Steve Lombardo
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It appears that Barack Obama’s media free-fall halted last week, as his polling positions in North Carolina and Indiana have leveled off.  Having said that, his electoral status is greatly diminished compared to where it was 30 days ago.   Our sense is that Wednesday will be Groundhog Day, with both Clinton and Obama locked in a struggle for the nomination, each candidate having won one state the night before.The last two months of the Democratic primary has been almost all about demographics…and tomorrow will be no different.  Obama wins among the young and the black, in urban areas, affluent suburbs and college towns.  Clinton wins among the elderly, women, Catholics and union households, in rural areas and working class suburbs.  This has remained consistent throughout the primaries.

North Carolina’s demographics are tailor-made for Obama.  The black vote is expected to represent between 25-33% of the Democratic primary turnout on Tuesday.  If it is closer to 33%, Obama wins by 10 points.  In addition, the state has large urban areas and several prominent colleges and universities.  Our analysis suggests that while Clinton has been trending up, we project an Obama victory of 7-10 points in NC.

Indiana of course, is a different story.  Here the demographics favor Clinton.  It is a fairly rural state with a large segment of Catholics and union households.  In fact, the trade and labor unions have come out strongly for Clinton and they are expected to show up on Tuesday.  And the black vote is projected to only represent approximately 10% of the primary vote tomorrow.  While some of the latest polls show Obama and Clinton even, we believe that the undecided and late-decided vote will go with Clinton (as they did in Pennsylvania and Ohio) and that she will win the state by 3-5 points.  If late deciders break for Clinton by a 2 to 1 margin, she could win by 7-10 points.

Again, Obama will have had an opportunity to close this election out and-again-he will have failed.  Part of the problem is the Wright controversy and the “bitter/clinging” comments, but he is also being hampered by a growing perception that he is not tough enough (Clinton’s constant refrain that she is a “fighter” is her not-so-subtle way of reinforcing this point).  The latest CBS/NYT poll completed between May 1^st and 3^rd shows that both Clinton and McCain are viewed as significantly “tougher” than Obama.  When asked if the candidate is tough enough to make choices confronting the President, 70% said Clinton was tough enough and 71% thought the same of McCain, but only 58% thought Obama has what it takes. 

After Wright and Bitter-Gate, now Obama has to worry about the wimp-factor.  Not a good spring.

Tags: Barack Obama, Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton by Steve Lombardo
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A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released today shifts focus from the remaining nominating contests to the environment heading into the general election campaign.  Most striking is the split in party identification: 51% Democrat versus 33% Republican.  The generic congressional ballot is similar, with a 49% to 34% Democratic advantage.  We’ve talked about the party ID issue before and this simply reaffirms that Republicans have an enormous structural disadvantage in 2008.

While the WSJ/NBC release does not include crosstabs, a recent release by Pew shows the Democrats’ party ID advantage is especially large among voters who have turned 20 since the Bush administration took office in 2000.  As the “Echo-Boom” generation comes of age, the low opinion of the Bush administration–demonstrated by its abysmal approval ratings–has driven these new participants away from the Republican Party for reasons that have little to do with social values or domestic policy.

The tremendous Democratic advantage in party identification means John McCain has to hope that his values and personal appeal will trump his party’s policies and President.  If, as is most likely, he faces Barack Obama in the fall, the election may be decided by which candidate does a better job of distancing himself from the crazy uncle in his family.  In the WSJ/NBC News survey, 43% of respondents had major concerns that “John McCain will be too closely aligned with the Bush agenda,” by far the most concerning negative statement about any candidate offered in this poll.  By comparison, 34% of voters had major concerns that “It is hard to know Barack Obama’s values because he has friends like Reverend Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers.”  Despite this result, our sense is that it will be easier for McCain to address voter concerns on this issue than it will be for Obama.  When the general election campaign begins in earnest, no one will confuse the maverick McCain with George W. Bush.  But as recently as a week ago, Obama was unwilling to distance himself from Reverend Wright.  Elections are won by defining the differences between yourself and your opponent, but in this election, making a clear distinction from these other toxic figures will be just as important.

Tags: 2008 General Election, Barack Obama, John McCain, New Polling Data by Steve Lombardo
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