LCG Election Monitor Blog

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released today shifts focus from the remaining nominating contests to the environment heading into the general election campaign.  Most striking is the split in party identification: 51% Democrat versus 33% Republican.  The generic congressional ballot is similar, with a 49% to 34% Democratic advantage.  We’ve talked about the party ID issue before and this simply reaffirms that Republicans have an enormous structural disadvantage in 2008.

While the WSJ/NBC release does not include crosstabs, a recent release by Pew shows the Democrats’ party ID advantage is especially large among voters who have turned 20 since the Bush administration took office in 2000.  As the “Echo-Boom” generation comes of age, the low opinion of the Bush administration–demonstrated by its abysmal approval ratings–has driven these new participants away from the Republican Party for reasons that have little to do with social values or domestic policy.

The tremendous Democratic advantage in party identification means John McCain has to hope that his values and personal appeal will trump his party’s policies and President.  If, as is most likely, he faces Barack Obama in the fall, the election may be decided by which candidate does a better job of distancing himself from the crazy uncle in his family.  In the WSJ/NBC News survey, 43% of respondents had major concerns that “John McCain will be too closely aligned with the Bush agenda,” by far the most concerning negative statement about any candidate offered in this poll.  By comparison, 34% of voters had major concerns that “It is hard to know Barack Obama’s values because he has friends like Reverend Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers.”  Despite this result, our sense is that it will be easier for McCain to address voter concerns on this issue than it will be for Obama.  When the general election campaign begins in earnest, no one will confuse the maverick McCain with George W. Bush.  But as recently as a week ago, Obama was unwilling to distance himself from Reverend Wright.  Elections are won by defining the differences between yourself and your opponent, but in this election, making a clear distinction from these other toxic figures will be just as important.

Tags: 2008 General Election, Barack Obama, John McCain, New Polling Data //