Groundhog Day for Democrats
It appears that Barack Obama’s media free-fall halted last week, as his polling positions in North Carolina and Indiana have leveled off. Having said that, his electoral status is greatly diminished compared to where it was 30 days ago. Our sense is that Wednesday will be Groundhog Day, with both Clinton and Obama locked in a struggle for the nomination, each candidate having won one state the night before.The last two months of the Democratic primary has been almost all about demographics…and tomorrow will be no different. Obama wins among the young and the black, in urban areas, affluent suburbs and college towns. Clinton wins among the elderly, women, Catholics and union households, in rural areas and working class suburbs. This has remained consistent throughout the primaries.
North Carolina’s demographics are tailor-made for Obama. The black vote is expected to represent between 25-33% of the Democratic primary turnout on Tuesday. If it is closer to 33%, Obama wins by 10 points. In addition, the state has large urban areas and several prominent colleges and universities. Our analysis suggests that while Clinton has been trending up, we project an Obama victory of 7-10 points in NC.
Indiana of course, is a different story. Here the demographics favor Clinton. It is a fairly rural state with a large segment of Catholics and union households. In fact, the trade and labor unions have come out strongly for Clinton and they are expected to show up on Tuesday. And the black vote is projected to only represent approximately 10% of the primary vote tomorrow. While some of the latest polls show Obama and Clinton even, we believe that the undecided and late-decided vote will go with Clinton (as they did in Pennsylvania and Ohio) and that she will win the state by 3-5 points. If late deciders break for Clinton by a 2 to 1 margin, she could win by 7-10 points.
Again, Obama will have had an opportunity to close this election out and-again-he will have failed. Part of the problem is the Wright controversy and the “bitter/clinging” comments, but he is also being hampered by a growing perception that he is not tough enough (Clinton’s constant refrain that she is a “fighter” is her not-so-subtle way of reinforcing this point). The latest CBS/NYT poll completed between May 1st and 3rd shows that both Clinton and McCain are viewed as significantly “tougher” than Obama. When asked if the candidate is tough enough to make choices confronting the President, 70% said Clinton was tough enough and 71% thought the same of McCain, but only 58% thought Obama has what it takes.
After Wright and Bitter-Gate, now Obama has to worry about the wimp-factor. Not a good spring.
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