LCG Election Monitor Blog

Every election is about a mix of several different things, including issues, strategic and tactical moves by the candidates and, of course, personalities.  So it would be simplistic to say that Presidential elections are about just one thing or another.  We do believe, however, that one common-and perhaps dominant- element of successful Presidential candidacies is the ability of a campaign to tap into the national mood and frame the candidate’s vision around that.  These campaigns often transcend issues and tactics (although those are important and often interwoven) and capture the national mindset.

These political advertising images represent some of those campaigns that were almost totally in sync with the national feeling.  Some, like Johnson’s “Daisy” and “Ice Cream” campaign ads, have become iconic in political advertising folklore.  But they don’t stand out because they were cutting-edge (although some were), but rather because they were spot-on and connected with voters.

Jimmy Carter’s campaign in 1976 was almost entirely about ethics in a post-Watergate environment.  The campaign tapped into voters’ yearnings for the return of honorable and hard-working people to politics. He represented himself as “of the people and for the people.”  When he told voters that he would not lie to them his campaign became almost completely synchronized with the national mood.  While President Ford almost came back, Carter held on to win because it was a change election in which the challenger captured the public mood. 

Running for reelection in 1984, Reagan recognized that the public was generally satisfied about the direction of the country and they wanted to take ownership of that.  Therefore, “Morning in America”-the Mike Deaver, Phil Dusenberry and Hal Riney ad-bundled facts about national prosperity with emotional patriotism.  The narrator (Riney himself) starts the ad with the line “It is morning again in America.”  The line was so good that they used it again at the end of the commercial. 

In 1992, Bill Clinton’s bio spot (featuring the picture of him meeting JFK) said that he represented a “new hope” and change.  It was a change election and the rallying cry of “It’s the economy, stupid” perfectly encapsulated the public’s anger with George H. W. Bush. 

What about 2008?

So the question we must ask is: what is the national mood for 2008?  Is it anger or weariness?  Is it hopeful or cautious?  Is it about our place in the world or about rebuilding America?  Is it about a “post-partisan” vision or is about redefining the weathered and frayed brands of the political parties?

More importantly, can a candidate or a candidacy define the national mood…or does the national mood define the candidate?  It is the proverbial chicken and egg.  We believe that the two presumptive candidates are people who are viewed as atypical political candidates and they both fit the post-partisan mood.  McCain went to Iowa in January and said that ethanol was not the answer.  Last week in Indiana Obama said that the “gas tax holiday” was short-sighted and bad policy.  Basically, much of this election will be determined by which of the two-McCain or Obama-can win the “political” battle without losing their “non-politician” appeal. 

We believe that the following is a concise picture of the country’s national mood:

• Tired of the war, gas prices, a stagnant economy and political gridlock
• Has evolved from post 2004-06 anger among Democrats to a weariness that is attitudinally embedded in an array of voting groups, including Independents, swing voters and even Republicans
• Worried about both their own personal economic security and the nation’s-both today and in the future

All of the above is reflected in the 80% “wrong track” polling data.  People want a national turnaround.  But voters almost always want it packaged in a vision for the future.  Look at the three words we have highlighted.  If voters are tired, weary and worried, they are basically adrift.  And if someone is adrift they need a lifeline.  The candidates have to give them hope but they also need to demonstrate that they can lead people to prosperity and security. 

Note that none of the above is about national security or foreign affairs.  Iraq is no longer a key driver in this election.  The war against terrorism has receded as an issue the more we are distanced from 9-11.  This, of course, could all change very rapidly.  Among the voting public there remains a dormant but politically powerful attitude that supports an aggressive posture against terrorism.   The question is whether it remains dormant.

Tags: 2008 General Election, Barack Obama, Campaign Spots, John McCain //