LCG Election Monitor Blog

The last thing that Barack Obama needed last week (other than the 41-point loss in West Virginia) was for the California Supreme Court to overrule a 2000 ballot initiative-approved by more than 60% of that state’s voters-that defined marriage as being between a man and a woman.  This decision essentially legalizes gay marriage in the largest state in the country.  Whatever you might think of the decision, it may, in the end, cost him electoral victories in key swing states this fall (think Michigan, Missouri and Ohio).The Clinton coalition is made up of seniors, women, Catholics and lower-income rural white voters.  While we believe that women are likely to move solidly into Obama’s column, he will have problems with seniors, Catholics and rural, lower-income white voters. These three voting segments are part of what became known as “Reagan Democrats” in the 1980s, and they voted with Bush in 2004.  The chart below comes from exit polls conducted in 2004. 

The problem for Obama is that the California Supreme Court vote-and the pressure it will put on his campaign-is layered onto his existing problems brought on by the Wright controversy and “bitter-gate.”  Obama already has a problem with cultural conservatives who feel that he is disconnected from their values.  Now the question is how this plays out in the coming weeks.  We have seen polling that suggests that the American public is becoming more and more accepting of gay marriage.  What we don’t know is what happens when and if this becomes a political issue and how the candidates navigate that issue in key swing states. 

Toxic Environment for the GOP

As we have said for months now, voters are extremely dissatisfied with the direction of the country.  The current political environment is toxic for the GOP.

Only 14% of Americans think that things are going in the right direction.  To characterize this as a “change election” may be a gross understatement.  Voter dissatisfaction with President Bush, the economy, the war, and Congress give this the look of a “transformative election.”

The latest NBC News/WSJ poll showed that Democrats have a 15-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot.  This is substantially worse than in 2006, when various polls had the Democratic advantage between 7 and 10 points.

This is what it comes down to:  If this election is about (and by that I mean what dominates the news every day) big ideas and the mood of the country then Obama will win.  If, on the other hand, the election is about personalities and “micro” issues then McCain can win.  It is really that simple.

Oh, and the person we haven’t talked about at all this morning will win the Kentucky Democratic primary by 30 points tomorrow.  Absurd and true.

Tags: 2008 General Election, Barack Obama //