LCG Election Monitor Blog

For the last two weeks Barack Obama has won the earned media battle, fueled by some McCain team gaffes and the unity tour with Hillary Clinton.  As we start to see Obama’s lead move into double digits in a few national polls, it makes sense to take a quick look at the current economic and issue environment.  We’re also going to take our first shot at plotting out where we think the Electoral Vote projection map is at this point in time.  First, the economic and issue environment.

We continue to believe that the country’s collective public opinion is mired in the longest period of discontent since Watergate.  This continues to be fed by the following (some of which are recent developments while others are ongoing):

1. The current economic recession has deepened in the last 60 days and there is no light at the end of the tunnel. The economy is now the most important electoral issue by far. Some facts:
   1. In May, sales of new homes declined for the fifth time in six months
   2. Existing home sales are down 16% from one year ago
   3. In June, consumer confidence plunged to its lowest level since 1992
   4. Average gas prices have hit $4.00 per gallon and may be as high as $5.00 per gallon in time for election day
2. While perceptions of the Iraq War have improved a bit, voters are still fatigued by the process and dissatisfied with the progress. The War remains a negative for the President and the GOP.
3. The poor economy is having a “trickle down” effect on other issues, with health care a prime example. It is yet another advantage for Democrats if concerns about health care are an important part of the consideration set this November.

We point this out not just because it suggests a problematic environment for John McCain and Republicans (everyone knows that it is) but that it tells us that there is the potential for a major electoral realignment this fall.  We will discuss this more in the coming weeks-and things are still in a state of flux-but it is something to keep in mind. 

LCG EV Projection Map

Today we launch our own Electoral College Vote projection map.  Some notes on our thought process in developing this:

1. Because we are so early in the process we have put more states into the toss-up category than most maps from other media sources.  Our rationale is that there is simply not enough data (hard or soft) in many states to make a meaningful projection.
2. There is an art to making these state calculations that goes beyond polling, including:
   1. Historical vote pattern
   2. Demographic trends
   3. Primary/Caucus turnout
   4. Gut instincts
3. In constructing this map, we used a variety of sources; in order of importance, they include:
   1. Our internal polling data
   2. Publicly-available polls
   3. States’ voting history in 2000 and 2004
   4. Demographic turnout models, based on:
      1. The 2000/2004 presidential elections
      2. Other recent races (gubernatorial, senate, etc.)
      3. This year’s primary contests

A subjective “tilt” based on other factors/issues that might influence outcomes in certain states.

Please remember that this map is just a reflection of where things stand today.  We are still more than five months from election day, and a lot will happen between now and November. 

We think that this is the best methodology for forecasting this race, given the great amount of time remaining before the election and the nature of this race: a “change” election with neither candidate positioning himself as the successor to the incumbent.

Here’s our take on where the race to 270 stands today.

States colored red or blue indicates that, if the election were held today, that state would be won by that candidate.  For example, while Pennsylvania is blue today, that doesn’t mean it can’t change over the next few months.  Orange states are too close to call given the information available at this time.

Some of these predictions may depart from conventional expectations, so let us explain what we felt were some of the “closer calls”:

1. New Hampshire (Blue):
   1. In recent years this has been seen as a battleground state: Bush beat Gore by one point in 2000 and then lost to Kerry by one point in 2004
   2. But a recent LCG survey of 250 NH registered voters had Obama +12 last week
   3. A Rasmussen survey from June 14^th showed Obama +11
   4. Demographically, New Hampshire has become increasingly liberal over the last 12 years as Boston suburbs expand north, Vermont ideology bleeds into the western part of the state and the rural population shrinks
2. North Carolina (Orange):
   1. Bush won Virginia by eight points in 2000 and 2004
   2. However, both publicly-released polls since Obama clinched show him leading (but within the margin of error); PPP has Obama +2, Rasmussen has Obama +1
   3. There is also evidence of a newly-energized Democratic electorate based on the results of the recent primary and Jim Webb’s surprise senate victory
      1. Black voters have made it to the polls at an astonishing rate and the upper-middle class/mixed-race counties in northern Virginia continue to grow rapidly compared to the southern and western areas of the state
3. North Carolina (Orange):
   1. Bush won here by at least 12 points both times
   2. But Rasmussen’s poll from June 10^th has McCain +2, also within the margin of error
   3. Like Virginia, black turnout is key in a state that is 30% non-white
      1. And North Carolina is urbanizing; Charlotte and Raleigh have become major urban centers with more affluent, liberal populations
      2. And like Florida, North Carolina has seen an increase in (generally liberal) retirees from northeastern states
      3. While we think this likely ends up in the GOP column it is in play as of June 30^th
   4. This is supported by voter registration data
      1. Approximately 130,000 Democrats have registered in the state since January, compared to 13,000 Republicans
      2. And this isn’t merely due to the more-interesting primary contest: North Carolina allows independents to vote in either primary

   The Obama campaign has made no secret of its desire to make a strong play for North Carolina, his grassroots organization is strong and the campaign has already started running television ads here

4. Indiana (Orange):
   1. This was also a Bush blowout state, as he won by 16 points in 2000 and 21 points in 2004
   2. However, a June 23^rd SurveyUSA poll had Obama +1, within the margin of error
   3. There is also the proximity to Obama’s home state
      1. And Evan Bayh’s popularity also helps: he will be actively campaigning for Obama
      2. Again, Indiana leans GOP but we’re going to consider it a battleground for the time being
5. Pennsylvania (Blue):
   1. Kerry only won by 2.5 points
   2. However, Quinnipiac ‘s June 16^th poll had Obama +12 (with n=1500) and Rasmussen’s tracking poll from June 22^nd had Obama +4 (with n=1000). Quinnipiac has been very reliable on forecasting PA races recently.
   3. Once again, this is supported by the state’s demographics; the Keystone state has a large population of inner-city blacks and white yuppies plus suburban and rural working-class, northern-state whites

Right now, it looks like there are 10 states up for grabs (worth 133 electoral votes).  Let’s call them the LCG Big Ten.  While Obama has a significant overall electoral college lead right now (242 to 163), it is far too early to attempt to assign the crucial remaining votes.  These are the races to follow closely over the coming months.

It seems obvious at this juncture that Obama has the early electoral map edge.  The striking part of last week is the offensive posture Obama took in targeting advertising in several “red” states, including  Alaska, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Carolina, and North Dakota.  He has the resources to do it and, as we have noted, at this early stage Indiana and North Carolina are potential pick-ups for Obama.

As more polls are conducted and the environment changes we will continue to update our projection.    You can always find our most recent electoral map-and other postings-by clicking the “EV Map” link at the top of our blog.

Tags: 2008 General Election, Barack Obama, EV map, John McCain //