LCG Election Monitor Blog

Republicans are in trouble in 2008.  Every indicator suggests that the  GOP is headed to electoral defeat.  While there are a number of weak areas for Republicans, nowhere is the issue most problematic than in the generic congressional ballot.  According to the latest NBC/WSJ poll Democrats have a 14 point lead over Republicans in the GCB.  They have had a significant lead since 2005. 

The issue is that voters have no reason to identify with Republicans and they have every reason (Katrina, the economy, the war, gas prices) to abandon ship.  Note that there is little evidence that voters are siding with Democrats because they are attracted to their ideas, rather they are abandoning Republicans because they have none.  And voters assume if they have none, they are in favor of the status quo.  This year, people do not want more of the same.

The way our for Repbulicans is to push forward an agenda with fundamental policy ideas that take Americans into the future.  Without such, they may be doomed to suffer more losses this cycle.

Tags: 2008 General Election, New Polling Data by Steve Lombardo
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Every election is about a mix of several different things, including issues, strategic and tactical moves by the candidates and, of course, personalities.  So it would be simplistic to say that Presidential elections are about just one thing or another.  We do believe, however, that one common-and perhaps dominant- element of successful Presidential candidacies is the ability of a campaign to tap into the national mood and frame the candidate’s vision around that.  These campaigns often transcend issues and tactics (although those are important and often interwoven) and capture the national mindset.

These political advertising images represent some of those campaigns that were almost totally in sync with the national feeling.  Some, like Johnson’s “Daisy” and “Ice Cream” campaign ads, have become iconic in political advertising folklore.  But they don’t stand out because they were cutting-edge (although some were), but rather because they were spot-on and connected with voters.

Jimmy Carter’s campaign in 1976 was almost entirely about ethics in a post-Watergate environment.  The campaign tapped into voters’ yearnings for the return of honorable and hard-working people to politics. He represented himself as “of the people and for the people.”  When he told voters that he would not lie to them his campaign became almost completely synchronized with the national mood.  While President Ford almost came back, Carter held on to win because it was a change election in which the challenger captured the public mood. 

Running for reelection in 1984, Reagan recognized that the public was generally satisfied about the direction of the country and they wanted to take ownership of that.  Therefore, “Morning in America”-the Mike Deaver, Phil Dusenberry and Hal Riney ad-bundled facts about national prosperity with emotional patriotism.  The narrator (Riney himself) starts the ad with the line “It is morning again in America.”  The line was so good that they used it again at the end of the commercial. 

In 1992, Bill Clinton’s bio spot (featuring the picture of him meeting JFK) said that he represented a “new hope” and change.  It was a change election and the rallying cry of “It’s the economy, stupid” perfectly encapsulated the public’s anger with George H. W. Bush. 

What about 2008?

So the question we must ask is: what is the national mood for 2008?  Is it anger or weariness?  Is it hopeful or cautious?  Is it about our place in the world or about rebuilding America?  Is it about a “post-partisan” vision or is about redefining the weathered and frayed brands of the political parties?

More importantly, can a candidate or a candidacy define the national mood…or does the national mood define the candidate?  It is the proverbial chicken and egg.  We believe that the two presumptive candidates are people who are viewed as atypical political candidates and they both fit the post-partisan mood.  McCain went to Iowa in January and said that ethanol was not the answer.  Last week in Indiana Obama said that the “gas tax holiday” was short-sighted and bad policy.  Basically, much of this election will be determined by which of the two-McCain or Obama-can win the “political” battle without losing their “non-politician” appeal. 

We believe that the following is a concise picture of the country’s national mood:

• Tired of the war, gas prices, a stagnant economy and political gridlock
• Has evolved from post 2004-06 anger among Democrats to a weariness that is attitudinally embedded in an array of voting groups, including Independents, swing voters and even Republicans
• Worried about both their own personal economic security and the nation’s-both today and in the future

All of the above is reflected in the 80% “wrong track” polling data.  People want a national turnaround.  But voters almost always want it packaged in a vision for the future.  Look at the three words we have highlighted.  If voters are tired, weary and worried, they are basically adrift.  And if someone is adrift they need a lifeline.  The candidates have to give them hope but they also need to demonstrate that they can lead people to prosperity and security. 

Note that none of the above is about national security or foreign affairs.  Iraq is no longer a key driver in this election.  The war against terrorism has receded as an issue the more we are distanced from 9-11.  This, of course, could all change very rapidly.  Among the voting public there remains a dormant but politically powerful attitude that supports an aggressive posture against terrorism.   The question is whether it remains dormant.

Tags: 2008 General Election, Barack Obama, Campaign Spots, John McCain by Steve Lombardo
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A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released today shifts focus from the remaining nominating contests to the environment heading into the general election campaign.  Most striking is the split in party identification: 51% Democrat versus 33% Republican.  The generic congressional ballot is similar, with a 49% to 34% Democratic advantage.  We’ve talked about the party ID issue before and this simply reaffirms that Republicans have an enormous structural disadvantage in 2008.

While the WSJ/NBC release does not include crosstabs, a recent release by Pew shows the Democrats’ party ID advantage is especially large among voters who have turned 20 since the Bush administration took office in 2000.  As the “Echo-Boom” generation comes of age, the low opinion of the Bush administration–demonstrated by its abysmal approval ratings–has driven these new participants away from the Republican Party for reasons that have little to do with social values or domestic policy.

The tremendous Democratic advantage in party identification means John McCain has to hope that his values and personal appeal will trump his party’s policies and President.  If, as is most likely, he faces Barack Obama in the fall, the election may be decided by which candidate does a better job of distancing himself from the crazy uncle in his family.  In the WSJ/NBC News survey, 43% of respondents had major concerns that “John McCain will be too closely aligned with the Bush agenda,” by far the most concerning negative statement about any candidate offered in this poll.  By comparison, 34% of voters had major concerns that “It is hard to know Barack Obama’s values because he has friends like Reverend Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers.”  Despite this result, our sense is that it will be easier for McCain to address voter concerns on this issue than it will be for Obama.  When the general election campaign begins in earnest, no one will confuse the maverick McCain with George W. Bush.  But as recently as a week ago, Obama was unwilling to distance himself from Reverend Wright.  Elections are won by defining the differences between yourself and your opponent, but in this election, making a clear distinction from these other toxic figures will be just as important.

Tags: 2008 General Election, Barack Obama, John McCain, New Polling Data by Steve Lombardo
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In today’s WSJ Peggy Noonan has an excellent piece on the current state of play in this election.  I am a huge fan of Ms. Noonan’s columns; however, near the end of today’s piece she suggests that McCain should consider announcing that he will be only a one term President.  She goes on to say that this will tell voters that he “means to have a clean, serious, one-term presidency in which he will do things those under pressure of re-election do not and cannot do”. 

This is one of those ideas that, as my colleague Pete Ventimiglia says, “sounds great when you first hear it but after five minutes of poking holes in it sounds like a dud”.  It is a dud.  It would make McCain a lame duck–virtually a second term President.  And every second term since FDR has been a disaster.  After the first week of kudos what does McCain get out of it?  Nothing.  If people are not willing to vote for him under ordinary circumstances would this really change their mind?  I don’t think so. 

Voters don’t want a “way out” this year as Ms. Noonan suggests, they want a way forward.  McCain wins by leading the way.

Tags: 2008 General Election, John McCain by Steve Lombardo
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While the talk this morning will be about Mark Penn’s exit and another Hillary story fabrication, we want to focus on the general election matchup. 

There has been much discussion about the fact that John McCain is running essentially even (or, in some cases, slightly ahead) of either Obama or Clinton. 

Don’t be fooled by these general election head-to-head polls…they are a mirage.  We believe that once Clinton withdraws from the race or wrestles the nomination from Obama, there will be a substantial electoral swing away from McCain to the Democrat.  One week after the Democratic nomination is settled, we would not be surprised to see polls showing the Democrat with a double digit lead.   This is more likely if Obama is the nominee but it is nevertheless a probable outcome.  Here is why:

1.   We are mired in the most protracted period of voter discontent since Watergate.  Voters are angry and they want change.  The latest NYT/CBS poll has the “wrong track” number at 81%.  You almost have to keep repeating that number over and over for it to sink in.

2.   The key drivers of voter dissatisfaction are the economy and Iraq, and neither is likely to improve substantially in the next 6 months.  Nearly 8 in 10 Americans believe the country is worse off than 5 years ago and only 4% say it is better (NYT/CBS poll March, 2008).  Only 21% of the respondents in that poll say the economy is in good condition.  That is the lowest number since late in 1992.  Median household income has yet to return to inflation-adjusted 1999 levels.  Voters believe we are in a recession. 

3.   While Congressional approval numbers are extraordinarily low, voter antagonism is focused almost entirely on President Bush.  As pollster Mark Blumenthal notes, Bush’s approval rating has been below 50% for 3 years and below 40% for two years.  The LCG average of the President’s approval rating has it somewhere between 20%-31%.  The downward slope of the trend line is startling.  This is a big problem for Republicans and, by extension, John McCain.

4.   Dissatisfaction with the President and the direction of the country has driven the erosion of the GOP brand.  Brand association weakens when people are disappointed with the product (or service performance) and confused by the brand attributes.  All of the above has happened to the GOP.  Voters are less inclined to trust Republicans on a host of issues and are unsure about what they represent (the old hallmarks of lower taxes, social values and national security strength have all but disappeared).  The Pew Research Center released a study last week showing that Democrats have an 8-point advantage in Party ID.  

A January Gallup poll showed Democrats with an 11-point Party ID lead (51% to 40%).  Additionally, there is data to suggest that Democrats are holding a double-digit lead in key swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.  In terms of party identification, all three were essentially even in 2004 and Democrats now have at least a 10% margin in each.

5.   The generic presidential ballot polling shows a generic Republican presidential candidate running anywhere from 10-15 points behind a generic Democratic presidential candidate.  A poll taken by NBC/WSJ in March showed the generic Democrat with a 13-point lead (50% to 37%).

We believe that once the Democratic race is settled, Clinton voters will move to Obama (or vice-versa) and independents will split 2-to-1 in favor of the Democrat.  This will give the Democratic nominee an immediate 10-12 point lead. 

This is not to suggest that John McCain cannot win.  We believe he still can.  However, GOP strategists should be prepared for the inevitable swing to the Democrat.  The question will be whether it swings back.

Tags: 2008 General Election, John McCain, New Polling Data by Steve Lombardo
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While the polling data is slow to catch up, the last two weeks have been decisively negative for Barrack Obama.  He is still likely to caputre the nomination but the problems generated by the Wright controversy are taking a toll on his campaign. 

The Wright episode hurts him in three ways; 1) it takes him seriously off message (so much so that he went on vacation),  2) it is getting traction because it suggests to some voters that Obama may not be as patriotic as he should be and 3) it raises prickly and potentially damaging racial issues.  We believe that Obama’s speech - while eloquent - did little to put out this fire.  And more importantly the speech may not alleviate voter concerns.  Voters did not need a speech about race in America, they needed a speech explaining why Obama allowed himself to be so close to Wright.  The issue strikes at the heart of his judgement.  And that matters to voters.   

Tags: 2008 General Election, Barack Obama, Democratic Primary by Steve Lombardo
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We’re kidding, of course.  But there is a lot of new survey data out today with hypothetical general election match-ups between John McCain and his two potential Democrat challengers: Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.  Now, this is all nonsense, of course, because at this stage it’s far too early to get any sort of genuine read on what will happen in the fall.  But these numbers will be scrutinized by wavering Democrats trying to determine the stronger general election candidate.  In two new surveys McCain has opened up a slight lead over Obama, which is significant because a number of previous surveys have had Obama leading McCain.  This might be a blip, it might not mean a thing, or it may be the start of a trend…we’ll just have to wait and see.  But if it is a trend-and if Clinton’s numbers against McCain start to improve-then she can start to make the argument that she would be the stronger general election candidate.  Will that be enough to overcome Obama’s delegate lead?  We’ll see.

Tags: 2008 General Election, Hillary Clinton, John McCain by Steve Lombardo
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Several months ago, a number of national news organizations—including the New York Times and the New Yorker—raised questions about Barack Obama’s ties to Rev. Jeremiah Wright.  While those stories made a bit of noise among DC insiders, for the most part their electoral impact has been little to none.  Until now.

An ABC News review of dozens of publicly-available sermons by Pastor Wright, until recently Obama’s pastor at the Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago, has produced some alarming videos of the pastor in action.

This is a good example of how the jump from print to video can cause a substantial change in perception and impact.  Even if what is being said is nothing more than inflammatory religious oratory, the visceral power of video makes this potentially very damaging for Obama.  This may be a game-changer, if not in his primary battle with Clinton but in a potential general election contest.

Despite his vague “repudiation” of Pastor Wright’s comments, it will be very difficult to distance himself from his pastor of 20 years who married him and baptized his two children.  So far Obama has been able to tread carefully around issues of race with a message of unification and post-racial politics.  However, when the man who inspired the title of his political manifesto, The Audacity of Hope, is seen firsthand as someone espousing divisiveness and hate it may be impossible for Obama not to address issues of race and the black experience directly.

Tags: 2008 General Election, Barack Obama by Steve Lombardo
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Two quick thoughts this Friday morning.

1. The “monster” brouhaha notwithstanding, it will be interesting to see if (and how) Barack Obama really intends to “go negative” in the coming weeks, as aides have suggested.  Obama’s appeal, of course, is that he’s been above this sort of thing, and so there’s a real danger for him in embracing the “politics of the past” that he has so far rejected.  But one thing is clear: Hillary’s recent attacks have worked, and Obama cannot simply dismiss her charges; he needs to start launching accusations of his own.
2. Some recent surveys have interesting news on changing perceptions of Iraq and a potential Obama general election candidacy.  Three key findings from a recent Pew Survey: public attitudes toward the war in Iraq have become more positive, and 47% of the public favors keeping troops in Iraq until the situation there has stabilized, the highest that response has been in more than a year.  The survey also raises concerns about whether Obama will be “tough enough” in dealing with national security issues.  None of this suggests that John McCain will be the front-runner next fall, but it does suggest that the foreign policy environment may not be a solid advantage for the Democrats, after all. 

Tags: 2008 General Election, Barack Obama, Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, New Polling Data by Steve Lombardo
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The economy and politics are intrinsically tied together.  It’s no secret that we are either in—or headed into—a recession.  Consumer confidence is trending downward.  The media coverage of negative economic news has been at an almost full saturation level for nearly 6 months.  Two stories in today’s NYT—“Oil tops Inflation Adjusted Record Set in 1980″ and “Vehicle Sales Fell by 10% Last Month”—continue the trend. 

This economic news is going to help the Democrats; it will help both their nominee and their congressional slate.   When the economy is bad, voters want change.  Bush and the Republicans (even though they are in the minority in Congress) are viewed primarily as the custodians of this economy.  Unless, of course, this is mitigated by national security issues or some external event, the economy will be by far the most important issue in this election.

Tags: 2008 General Election, Economy, Most Important Issues by Steve Lombardo
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