Team Clinton “won” the free media war last week and, as we turn the corner on the final week before the May 6th Indiana and North Carolina primaries, it is pushing hard against Obama with a brilliant tactical move. Clinton’s push to debate Obama one-on-one with no moderator is an old tactic, but, in this case, an awfully good one. This election cycle is about “earned” media victories-not paid media wins-and in the last 60 days Clinton has dominated Obama in this area. In fact, this cycle, there is almost no correlation between advertising spending and the eventual winner.
A cursory look at three key states tells the story. While we recognize that a myriad of other campaign variables (such as a state’s demographics and the issue matrix) help drive a win or a loss in a particular state, there is no doubt about the diminished impact of paid television advertising. Obama outspent Clinton in Ohio on the air by nearly a 2 to 1 margin and yet lost by 10 points. He spent more $2 million more on television ads in Texas and lost by 4 points. And, of course, he outspent Clinton by a 2 to 1 margin in Pennsylvania and lost by nearly 10 points.
We have seen this trend for the last three Presidential election cycles; earned media trumps paid media almost every time. This is because in an increasingly cynical society people are tuning out political ads. The nature of political advertising has largely gone unchanged over the last 20 years; as a result, voters have seen it all before. Political ads these days are like bad sitcom re-runs that TBS won’t stop airing. And with the exception of two Clinton spots (3AM and Kitchen), the impact of advertising this year-on both the Republican and Democrat sides-has been negligible.
More importantly, voters now look for unscripted visual and oral “cues” from candidates (or their surrogates)-these usually come from debates, interviews and other appearances-for guidance as to how to vote. And in this department Obama has had a bad two months. Sure, Clinton has had issues as well (sniper fire and President Clinton’s comments on race), but the most overwhelmingly provocative cues have come from Obama and his Pastor, Reverend Wright.
We are not saying that there is no value to political advertising. Rather, we are saying that its effectiveness has greatly diminished. Furthermore, it works best when it reinforces some pre-existing notion that voters have and simultaneously gives them something new to think about; it has to be woven into a strategy. That is why Clinton’s 3AM ads are so good. Those ads take the underlying impression or concern that some Democratic primary voters have of Obama’s main weakness-that he isn’t ready for prime time-and cement it.
Those ads, though, are the exception in this cycle. For better or worse, these days it is all about the media that these candidates create on their own (that is why they call it “earned” media).
As Reverend Wright takes to the podium this morning at the National Press Club, the effect of “free” media is unlikely to recede any time soon.
Tags: Barack Obama, Campaign Spots, Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton by Steve Lombardo
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