LCG Election Monitor Blog

While the talk this morning will be about Mark Penn’s exit and another Hillary story fabrication, we want to focus on the general election matchup. 

There has been much discussion about the fact that John McCain is running essentially even (or, in some cases, slightly ahead) of either Obama or Clinton. 

Don’t be fooled by these general election head-to-head polls…they are a mirage.  We believe that once Clinton withdraws from the race or wrestles the nomination from Obama, there will be a substantial electoral swing away from McCain to the Democrat.  One week after the Democratic nomination is settled, we would not be surprised to see polls showing the Democrat with a double digit lead.   This is more likely if Obama is the nominee but it is nevertheless a probable outcome.  Here is why:

1.   We are mired in the most protracted period of voter discontent since Watergate.  Voters are angry and they want change.  The latest NYT/CBS poll has the “wrong track” number at 81%.  You almost have to keep repeating that number over and over for it to sink in.

2.   The key drivers of voter dissatisfaction are the economy and Iraq, and neither is likely to improve substantially in the next 6 months.  Nearly 8 in 10 Americans believe the country is worse off than 5 years ago and only 4% say it is better (NYT/CBS poll March, 2008).  Only 21% of the respondents in that poll say the economy is in good condition.  That is the lowest number since late in 1992.  Median household income has yet to return to inflation-adjusted 1999 levels.  Voters believe we are in a recession. 

3.   While Congressional approval numbers are extraordinarily low, voter antagonism is focused almost entirely on President Bush.  As pollster Mark Blumenthal notes, Bush’s approval rating has been below 50% for 3 years and below 40% for two years.  The LCG average of the President’s approval rating has it somewhere between 20%-31%.  The downward slope of the trend line is startling.  This is a big problem for Republicans and, by extension, John McCain.

4.   Dissatisfaction with the President and the direction of the country has driven the erosion of the GOP brand.  Brand association weakens when people are disappointed with the product (or service performance) and confused by the brand attributes.  All of the above has happened to the GOP.  Voters are less inclined to trust Republicans on a host of issues and are unsure about what they represent (the old hallmarks of lower taxes, social values and national security strength have all but disappeared).  The Pew Research Center released a study last week showing that Democrats have an 8-point advantage in Party ID.  

A January Gallup poll showed Democrats with an 11-point Party ID lead (51% to 40%).  Additionally, there is data to suggest that Democrats are holding a double-digit lead in key swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.  In terms of party identification, all three were essentially even in 2004 and Democrats now have at least a 10% margin in each.

5.   The generic presidential ballot polling shows a generic Republican presidential candidate running anywhere from 10-15 points behind a generic Democratic presidential candidate.  A poll taken by NBC/WSJ in March showed the generic Democrat with a 13-point lead (50% to 37%).

We believe that once the Democratic race is settled, Clinton voters will move to Obama (or vice-versa) and independents will split 2-to-1 in favor of the Democrat.  This will give the Democratic nominee an immediate 10-12 point lead. 

This is not to suggest that John McCain cannot win.  We believe he still can.  However, GOP strategists should be prepared for the inevitable swing to the Democrat.  The question will be whether it swings back.

Tags: 2008 General Election, John McCain, New Polling Data by Steve Lombardo
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We’re kidding, of course.  But there is a lot of new survey data out today with hypothetical general election match-ups between John McCain and his two potential Democrat challengers: Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.  Now, this is all nonsense, of course, because at this stage it’s far too early to get any sort of genuine read on what will happen in the fall.  But these numbers will be scrutinized by wavering Democrats trying to determine the stronger general election candidate.  In two new surveys McCain has opened up a slight lead over Obama, which is significant because a number of previous surveys have had Obama leading McCain.  This might be a blip, it might not mean a thing, or it may be the start of a trend…we’ll just have to wait and see.  But if it is a trend-and if Clinton’s numbers against McCain start to improve-then she can start to make the argument that she would be the stronger general election candidate.  Will that be enough to overcome Obama’s delegate lead?  We’ll see.

Tags: 2008 General Election, Hillary Clinton, John McCain by Steve Lombardo
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Two quick thoughts this Friday morning.

1. The “monster” brouhaha notwithstanding, it will be interesting to see if (and how) Barack Obama really intends to “go negative” in the coming weeks, as aides have suggested.  Obama’s appeal, of course, is that he’s been above this sort of thing, and so there’s a real danger for him in embracing the “politics of the past” that he has so far rejected.  But one thing is clear: Hillary’s recent attacks have worked, and Obama cannot simply dismiss her charges; he needs to start launching accusations of his own.
2. Some recent surveys have interesting news on changing perceptions of Iraq and a potential Obama general election candidacy.  Three key findings from a recent Pew Survey: public attitudes toward the war in Iraq have become more positive, and 47% of the public favors keeping troops in Iraq until the situation there has stabilized, the highest that response has been in more than a year.  The survey also raises concerns about whether Obama will be “tough enough” in dealing with national security issues.  None of this suggests that John McCain will be the front-runner next fall, but it does suggest that the foreign policy environment may not be a solid advantage for the Democrats, after all. 

Tags: 2008 General Election, Barack Obama, Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, New Polling Data by Steve Lombardo
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While it may have been the biggest political news of the weekend, the impact of Ralph Nader’s entry into the 2008 election process is likely to be negligible.  There are three reasons:
 
1. Nader’s vote share dropped dramatically from 2000 to 2004, and there is no reason to think he will re-capture that in 2008.  In 2000, Nader was a relatively serious force, capturing 4% of the vote.  Exit polls show he received 5% of the 18-29 vote, 6% of the “liberal” vote, and 15% of the vote from those who voted for an independent candidate in ’96.  He also got 7% of the non Judeo-Christian vote and 7% of the atheist/agnostic vote, and 6% among those who never attend church.  Having said that, the exit poll data suggested he took evenly from both Bush and Gore, though it’s clear that Nader hurt Gore in some important states (i.e. Florida).

And in 2004 Nader received only 1% of the vote, getting above 1% with only three sub-groups: Hispanics (2%) and those who did not vote or voted for an independent candidate in ’00 (2% respectively).  He was a non-factor. 
 
      Vote Totals 
  
      2004:
      Bush      51%
      Kerry     48
      Nader     1
 
      2000:
      Gore      48%
      Bush      48
      Nader     4

2. His moment has passed.  Fewer and fewer voters recognize him as a consumer advocate.  More importantly, there is a general sense by those who do know him that he is not to be taken seriously.  

3. Angry voters have other places to go.  Both Obama and McCain are magnets for disenfranchised voters.  

The only way that Nader becomes a potential election-changer is if Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, and even that might be a stretch.

Tags: 2000 Election, 2004 Election, 2008 General Election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Ralph Nader by Steve Lombardo
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Just to divert your attention (for only a moment) from the McCain furor, we decided to take a look at favorability ratings of the current presidential candidates to see how they compared historically.  Fortunately we have fresh data from a poll released today by Fox News/Opinion Dynamics. 

The results give us some insight into Hillary’s likeability deficit and how it is impeding her hopes for securing the nomination. 

The poll shows Obama with a 54% favorability rating (33% have an unfavorable impression of him).  McCain (pre-NYT story) has a similar ratio with a favorable/unfavorable rating of 52%/33%.  Both have a net positive favorability rating of approximately +20. 

Clinton, on the other hand, has a net negative favorability rating (-6).  Only 45% of the electorate has a favorable impression of Clinton, while 51% are unfavorable toward her.  While she does well among Democrats, it is among self-described Independents where she is losing ground.  Obama’s favorability rating among Independents is 54%…Clinton’s is just 38%. 

Four years ago Bush had a 52% favorable rating (a net positive of +12) in early March and Kerry had a net positive rating of +19. 

It is awfully difficult to become your party’s nominee when more than half of Independents have an unfavorable impression of you.  People vote for people.  And many voters have decided that they do not like Hillary Clinton. 

Tags: Barack Obama, Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, New Polling Data by Steve Lombardo
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