LCG Election Monitor Blog

Some people have asked us why there is so much variation in the national presidential horserace polls.  My guess is that there are a number of reasons for variance from poll to poll:

1.  There is volatility because it’s still pretty early in the process and many voters have not started to weigh the pros and cons of the candidates in a meaningful way.  So, because they are in flux the polls mirror that.

2.  Pollsters are using all sorts of different models to gauge party identification.  Using historical models of party ID may be problematic given the swing in the last 12 months toward the Democratic party and the millions of new registered voters (the vast majority of whom are Democrats).  There may be unusually elevated sampling bias depending on who has freshly harvested voter registration data and who is using older samples/panels.

3.  Some media polls are using Likely Voter screens and some are simply Registered Voter samples.  That can hugely impact poll results, as most of the big Obama leads (double-digit) are with Registered Voter samples. 4.  Media polls are notoriously cheap and do not have the methodological, sampling or weighting rigor of campaign or academic polls.  5.  As a result of all of this, at this stage of the game it’s probably best to simply average all of the polls (as we do).

 Our sense is that the Obama lead is somewhere around 7 or 8 points but trending up.

Tags: 2008 General Election, Barack Obama, John McCain, New Polling Data by Steve Lombardo
No Comments »

As I write this, I am watching Clinton strategist Terry McAuliffe on MSNBC’s Morning Joe, and he’s wearing a bright yellow and green Hawaiian shirt.  Even Terry knows it’s over.

Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama by 36 points in Puerto Rico this weekend, and in two days Obama will likely become the Democratic nominee for President.  Welcome back to the bizarre world of the Democratic Presidential nominating process. 

The last two primaries will be held tomorrow in South Dakota and Montana.  It is our sense that Obama will declare that he is the nominee on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning at the latest.  While Clinton may elect to take her battle to the credentials committee at the convention, we think it is more likely that she will suspend her campaign later this week and ultimately endorse Obama. 

General Election Preview

LCG conducted a national survey of 1,000 registered voters May 26-28^th.  The following are the highlights:

• The poor economy is THE driving force in this election.  The economy is by far the most important issue for Americans, eclipsing Iraq by more than a 2 to 1 margin.  Healthcare and social/moral issues are tied for third. 
• President Bush is dead weight for nearly every Republican running in November. Bush’s favorability is at 32%.  More importantly, nearly half of voters (49%) have a “very unfavorable” opinion of the President. 
• McCain and Obama start the election with similar favorability ratings.  Both have similar unfavorable ratings (approximately 40%); there are, however, some differences among specific sub-groups:
  • McCain does better among those who are married, non-Catholic Christians and evangelicals.
  • Obama does better among those who are younger, not married, have college degrees and are non-Christians.
• In a head-to-head, Obama is beating McCain by a very narrow margin (44% to 40%).  As we have said before, we believe that Obama will get a 10-point bounce once he is officially the nominee and Clinton voters “return home.”  Having said that, this data is instructional as to where the strengths and weaknesses lie for each candidate:
  • McCain is not doing well enough among men to bridge the historical gender gap with women.  The presidential voting pattern for the last 20 years suggests that the Republican candidate needs to win among men by at least 8-12 points to make up for the party’s usual gender gap with women.  The so-called gender gap is not one-sided.  McCain wins men by four points but loses women by 10 points.  This is a problem. 
    • In fact, the problem is so severe that McCain is losing women by 12-14 points among every age cohort except for women 65+, where he is running even with Obama. 
  • McCain will not win Independents on his reputation alone.   Obama is winning among Independents by about 8 points.  Yes, McCain is favorably viewed by Independents but that is not translating into actual votes at this point in time. 
  • Obama is cutting into historical GOP success with white voters.  At this point, McCain is only winning the white vote by two points.  Compare that to 2004 when Bush beat Kerry among white voters by 17 points (58% to 41%). 
  • McCain has not yet secured the GOP base.  McCain is winning among evangelicals by 25 points, getting 56% of that vote.  However, this is 22 points below what Bush got against Kerry in 2004 (78%).  In fact, Bush captured 80% of the evangelical vote in 2000 against Gore. Certainly, a lot will change between now and November, but If this level of evangelical support continues in the summer and fall it will make a McCain victory virtually unattainable. 

It is way too early, and the contour of this campaign will shift and morph a hundred times, but all of the available evidence suggests that the Democratic nominating process has energized the electorate in favor of Obama, the national issue climate favors Obama and the trend in party identification favors the Democrats and Obama. 

People ask us the same question all the time: Can Obama really win this thing?  Sometimes the answer is staring you in the face.

Tags: 2008 General Election, Barack Obama, Favorability Ratings, John McCain, New Polling Data by Steve Lombardo
No Comments »

Republicans are in trouble in 2008.  Every indicator suggests that the  GOP is headed to electoral defeat.  While there are a number of weak areas for Republicans, nowhere is the issue most problematic than in the generic congressional ballot.  According to the latest NBC/WSJ poll Democrats have a 14 point lead over Republicans in the GCB.  They have had a significant lead since 2005. 

The issue is that voters have no reason to identify with Republicans and they have every reason (Katrina, the economy, the war, gas prices) to abandon ship.  Note that there is little evidence that voters are siding with Democrats because they are attracted to their ideas, rather they are abandoning Republicans because they have none.  And voters assume if they have none, they are in favor of the status quo.  This year, people do not want more of the same.

The way our for Repbulicans is to push forward an agenda with fundamental policy ideas that take Americans into the future.  Without such, they may be doomed to suffer more losses this cycle.

Tags: 2008 General Election, New Polling Data by Steve Lombardo
No Comments »

We have said it before, the day to day battle during a primary season is almost all about expectations.  And on Tuesday, Obama beat expectations.  He won decisively in NC and came close in Indiana. 

How did Obama come so close in Indiana?  He was able to cut into Clinton’s core vote thereby limiting the margins she could run up among her demographic groups and in her areas of the state. 

For example, Clinton lost the Indianapolis metropolitan area by more than 15 points.  And while he did so because of his overwhelming victory among blacks he also cut into Clinton’s lead among white voters.  Exit polls show that Obama only lost white women by 20 points, far less than the 36 point margin Clinton had in PA.   Obama lost white Catholics by 22 points, again, far less than the 44 point margin Clinton ran up in PA.  Basically, by cutting into her margins with these demo groups and doing well in college towns and with black voters, Obama almost stole IN and beat the pundit betting line. 

Tags: Barack Obama, Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton, New Polling Data, Uncategorized by Steve Lombardo
No Comments »

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released today shifts focus from the remaining nominating contests to the environment heading into the general election campaign.  Most striking is the split in party identification: 51% Democrat versus 33% Republican.  The generic congressional ballot is similar, with a 49% to 34% Democratic advantage.  We’ve talked about the party ID issue before and this simply reaffirms that Republicans have an enormous structural disadvantage in 2008.

While the WSJ/NBC release does not include crosstabs, a recent release by Pew shows the Democrats’ party ID advantage is especially large among voters who have turned 20 since the Bush administration took office in 2000.  As the “Echo-Boom” generation comes of age, the low opinion of the Bush administration–demonstrated by its abysmal approval ratings–has driven these new participants away from the Republican Party for reasons that have little to do with social values or domestic policy.

The tremendous Democratic advantage in party identification means John McCain has to hope that his values and personal appeal will trump his party’s policies and President.  If, as is most likely, he faces Barack Obama in the fall, the election may be decided by which candidate does a better job of distancing himself from the crazy uncle in his family.  In the WSJ/NBC News survey, 43% of respondents had major concerns that “John McCain will be too closely aligned with the Bush agenda,” by far the most concerning negative statement about any candidate offered in this poll.  By comparison, 34% of voters had major concerns that “It is hard to know Barack Obama’s values because he has friends like Reverend Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers.”  Despite this result, our sense is that it will be easier for McCain to address voter concerns on this issue than it will be for Obama.  When the general election campaign begins in earnest, no one will confuse the maverick McCain with George W. Bush.  But as recently as a week ago, Obama was unwilling to distance himself from Reverend Wright.  Elections are won by defining the differences between yourself and your opponent, but in this election, making a clear distinction from these other toxic figures will be just as important.

Tags: 2008 General Election, Barack Obama, John McCain, New Polling Data by Steve Lombardo
No Comments »

Just when we thought it was safe to declare last week an Obama “win” (the reemergence of Bosnia really hurt Clinton), the Senator himself snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by saying the following at an April 6^th fundraiser in San Francisco (which was widely reported on Friday evening and over the weekend):

• “You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them.  And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not.  So it’s not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”

Let us be clear about the political implications of this.  While this will hurt Obama in the short term in Pennsylvania, comments like this are potentially fatal in a general election.  The problem for Obama is that it is part of a pattern, and voters look at patterns when making judgments about candidates.  The cumulative effect of these remarks-combined with the Wright controversy and comments made by Michelle Obama about it being difficult to pay for piano lessons and the fact that the only time she has been proud of this country has been during her husband’s primary and caucus victories-suggests elitism.  Voters are repelled by elitism. 

Voters look for “cues” in making their decision, and this one is as big as the San Francisco Bay Bridge.  Prior to the 2004 Presidential election, John Kerry led or tied George Bush on nearly ten major issue areas (including the economy and healthcare) but lost by more than 10 points on two deciding factors:  national security and moral/family issues.  Barrack Obama is in danger of morphing into John Kerry.  

Sensing political blood in the water, team Clinton jumped on this over the weekend.  This was an enormous political gift for them and they took advantage.   

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TeV2KzGGC38

 Just a week ago a poll conducted by Quinnipiac University showed Clinton’s lead in Pennsylvania had shrunk from 12 points to 6 points (50% to 44%).  This same poll showed that Obama had made most of his gains among white men without a college education. 

The LCG average of the last 6 polls in PA suggests that Hillary’s lead on Friday of last week was approximately 7 points. 

Obama was well within striking distance and the trend was in his direction. 

Be looking for polls taken today through Wednesday which will serve as a good indicator of the “bitter” effect. 

We will be back again next week and look for more commentary on our blog during the course of the week.

Tags: Barack Obama, Democratic Primary, New Polling Data by Steve Lombardo
No Comments »

While the talk this morning will be about Mark Penn’s exit and another Hillary story fabrication, we want to focus on the general election matchup. 

There has been much discussion about the fact that John McCain is running essentially even (or, in some cases, slightly ahead) of either Obama or Clinton. 

Don’t be fooled by these general election head-to-head polls…they are a mirage.  We believe that once Clinton withdraws from the race or wrestles the nomination from Obama, there will be a substantial electoral swing away from McCain to the Democrat.  One week after the Democratic nomination is settled, we would not be surprised to see polls showing the Democrat with a double digit lead.   This is more likely if Obama is the nominee but it is nevertheless a probable outcome.  Here is why:

1.   We are mired in the most protracted period of voter discontent since Watergate.  Voters are angry and they want change.  The latest NYT/CBS poll has the “wrong track” number at 81%.  You almost have to keep repeating that number over and over for it to sink in.

2.   The key drivers of voter dissatisfaction are the economy and Iraq, and neither is likely to improve substantially in the next 6 months.  Nearly 8 in 10 Americans believe the country is worse off than 5 years ago and only 4% say it is better (NYT/CBS poll March, 2008).  Only 21% of the respondents in that poll say the economy is in good condition.  That is the lowest number since late in 1992.  Median household income has yet to return to inflation-adjusted 1999 levels.  Voters believe we are in a recession. 

3.   While Congressional approval numbers are extraordinarily low, voter antagonism is focused almost entirely on President Bush.  As pollster Mark Blumenthal notes, Bush’s approval rating has been below 50% for 3 years and below 40% for two years.  The LCG average of the President’s approval rating has it somewhere between 20%-31%.  The downward slope of the trend line is startling.  This is a big problem for Republicans and, by extension, John McCain.

4.   Dissatisfaction with the President and the direction of the country has driven the erosion of the GOP brand.  Brand association weakens when people are disappointed with the product (or service performance) and confused by the brand attributes.  All of the above has happened to the GOP.  Voters are less inclined to trust Republicans on a host of issues and are unsure about what they represent (the old hallmarks of lower taxes, social values and national security strength have all but disappeared).  The Pew Research Center released a study last week showing that Democrats have an 8-point advantage in Party ID.  

A January Gallup poll showed Democrats with an 11-point Party ID lead (51% to 40%).  Additionally, there is data to suggest that Democrats are holding a double-digit lead in key swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.  In terms of party identification, all three were essentially even in 2004 and Democrats now have at least a 10% margin in each.

5.   The generic presidential ballot polling shows a generic Republican presidential candidate running anywhere from 10-15 points behind a generic Democratic presidential candidate.  A poll taken by NBC/WSJ in March showed the generic Democrat with a 13-point lead (50% to 37%).

We believe that once the Democratic race is settled, Clinton voters will move to Obama (or vice-versa) and independents will split 2-to-1 in favor of the Democrat.  This will give the Democratic nominee an immediate 10-12 point lead. 

This is not to suggest that John McCain cannot win.  We believe he still can.  However, GOP strategists should be prepared for the inevitable swing to the Democrat.  The question will be whether it swings back.

Tags: 2008 General Election, John McCain, New Polling Data by Steve Lombardo
No Comments »

While Hillary Clinton is performing well in pre-election polls in Pennsylvania it is worth noting that her “negatives” have risen over the last 30 days.  While a recent Gallup poll shows the Senator with 53% favorable and 44% unfavorable – a 9% net positive — others show her closer to a 1 to 1 ratio of favorable/unfavorable.  Yes, this is among all voters but it demonstrates her general election problem.

For example a CBS poll in mid-March showed Clinton at 39% favorable and 41% unfavorable.  Our averaging of the last 4 national polls shows Clinton with nearly 45% unfavorable.  It is very difficult for her to sustain this level of unfavorable opinion and convince superdelgates that she should win the nomination.  

Tags: Democratic Primary, Favorability Ratings, Hillary Clinton, New Polling Data by Steve Lombardo
No Comments »

Two quick thoughts this Friday morning.

1. The “monster” brouhaha notwithstanding, it will be interesting to see if (and how) Barack Obama really intends to “go negative” in the coming weeks, as aides have suggested.  Obama’s appeal, of course, is that he’s been above this sort of thing, and so there’s a real danger for him in embracing the “politics of the past” that he has so far rejected.  But one thing is clear: Hillary’s recent attacks have worked, and Obama cannot simply dismiss her charges; he needs to start launching accusations of his own.
2. Some recent surveys have interesting news on changing perceptions of Iraq and a potential Obama general election candidacy.  Three key findings from a recent Pew Survey: public attitudes toward the war in Iraq have become more positive, and 47% of the public favors keeping troops in Iraq until the situation there has stabilized, the highest that response has been in more than a year.  The survey also raises concerns about whether Obama will be “tough enough” in dealing with national security issues.  None of this suggests that John McCain will be the front-runner next fall, but it does suggest that the foreign policy environment may not be a solid advantage for the Democrats, after all. 

Tags: 2008 General Election, Barack Obama, Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, New Polling Data by Steve Lombardo
No Comments »

It is our sense that Texas is really beginning to move toward Obama.  The latest Reuters/C-SPAN poll has Obama up 6 points (48-42%) among likely Democratic primary voters in Texas.  Interestingly, Clinton is only winning among the 65+ age cohort.  Obama has a solid majority with all other age groups.  This has been a dominant breakdown in the last several primaries/caucuses and Texas is proving no exception.  And remember that Republicans can vote in the Democratic primary and they are solidly behind Obama.

Things however, may change over the weekend as Clinton hammers Obama on experience.  Her latest television spot is very tough…questioning whether voters want to trust Obama with their children’s lives.  Our feeling: too little way too late.

Tags: Barack Obama, Campaign Spots, Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton, New Polling Data by Steve Lombardo
No Comments »