LCG Election Monitor Blog

Hillary Clinton lost last night’s debate (and perhaps the nomination).  That much was clear when, 25 minutes into the debate, she passed on a golden opportunity to differentiate herself from Obama on the economy.  If there are no qualitative, issue-based differences between the two candidates (and perhaps there aren’t) then this becomes purely a personality campaign.  And as our post yesterday noted she has already lost that contest.  A few things to note:

1. The polls in both Texas and Ohio appear to be closing.  In Ohio, Hillary has a 6-8 point lead (it was 10-15 points last week) and Texas is now too close to call. 
2. Obama is not a terrific debater.  Sure, he has some good moments but at other times he’s fairly stiff.  He is far better at delivering speeches.
3. Last night reinforced something that’s been obvious for much of this campaign…Clinton is not effective in attack mode.  It hasn’t worked in her paid advertising and it didn’t work in the debates.  She was grasping at straws with weak comparatives in  her ads and in the debates she’s just come off as shrill.

Tags: Barack Obama, Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton, New Polling Data by Steve Lombardo
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Just to divert your attention (for only a moment) from the McCain furor, we decided to take a look at favorability ratings of the current presidential candidates to see how they compared historically.  Fortunately we have fresh data from a poll released today by Fox News/Opinion Dynamics. 

The results give us some insight into Hillary’s likeability deficit and how it is impeding her hopes for securing the nomination. 

The poll shows Obama with a 54% favorability rating (33% have an unfavorable impression of him).  McCain (pre-NYT story) has a similar ratio with a favorable/unfavorable rating of 52%/33%.  Both have a net positive favorability rating of approximately +20. 

Clinton, on the other hand, has a net negative favorability rating (-6).  Only 45% of the electorate has a favorable impression of Clinton, while 51% are unfavorable toward her.  While she does well among Democrats, it is among self-described Independents where she is losing ground.  Obama’s favorability rating among Independents is 54%…Clinton’s is just 38%. 

Four years ago Bush had a 52% favorable rating (a net positive of +12) in early March and Kerry had a net positive rating of +19. 

It is awfully difficult to become your party’s nominee when more than half of Independents have an unfavorable impression of you.  People vote for people.  And many voters have decided that they do not like Hillary Clinton. 

Tags: Barack Obama, Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, New Polling Data by Steve Lombardo
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