Nader’s Impact will be Negligible in 2008
While it may have been the biggest political news of the weekend, the impact of Ralph Nader’s entry into the 2008 election process is likely to be negligible. There are three reasons:
1. Nader’s vote share dropped dramatically from 2000 to 2004, and there is no reason to think he will re-capture that in 2008. In 2000, Nader was a relatively serious force, capturing 4% of the vote. Exit polls show he received 5% of the 18-29 vote, 6% of the “liberal” vote, and 15% of the vote from those who voted for an independent candidate in ’96. He also got 7% of the non Judeo-Christian vote and 7% of the atheist/agnostic vote, and 6% among those who never attend church. Having said that, the exit poll data suggested he took evenly from both Bush and Gore, though it’s clear that Nader hurt Gore in some important states (i.e. Florida).
And in 2004 Nader received only 1% of the vote, getting above 1% with only three sub-groups: Hispanics (2%) and those who did not vote or voted for an independent candidate in ’00 (2% respectively). He was a non-factor.
Vote Totals
2004:
Bush 51%
Kerry 48
Nader 1
2000:
Gore 48%
Bush 48
Nader 4
2. His moment has passed. Fewer and fewer voters recognize him as a consumer advocate. More importantly, there is a general sense by those who do know him that he is not to be taken seriously.
3. Angry voters have other places to go. Both Obama and McCain are magnets for disenfranchised voters.
The only way that Nader becomes a potential election-changer is if Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, and even that might be a stretch.