That notwithstanding, there has been a slight tightening of the race.  Our own average of the last few public and private polls shows a 3-point Obama advantage.  This has come after several late June polls showed an Obama lead of between 8-12 points.  While Obama probably never had a double-digit lead (it was probably closer to eight points), it’s clear that the post-Hilary exit bounce is all but gone. 

As we have said in the past, there will be a lot of volatility during this period for myriad reasons, and we should not put much stock into any one poll.  But the performance gap between Obama and the generic Democratic advantages (the Democrats’ 15-point generic congressional ballot lead and double-digit party ID lead) tells us that many swing voters are not yet sold on Obama.

David Axelrod and the Obama strategy team have to be worried about this.  While it is somewhat understandable since Obama is new to the political scene - many people simply do not know enough about him to form an opinion yet - it does suggest that swing voters are being cautious with Obama and his candidacy.  This is the fundamental issue that Obama faces:  Can he reassure enough voters that he can be entrusted with the Presidency?

The more we think about this campaign, it is almost entirely about Obama’s acceptability.  Yes, McCain needs to clearly define his rationale - and there will surely be tactical advances and blunders along the way - but the large thematic campaign question will hinge on how much swing voters feel “comfortable” with voting for Obama.

Of course the economy, Iraq, energy and terrorism will remain important issues over the next 100 days, but this election is largely about Obama’s character - about who he is as a person.  This is why we see Obama on Access Hollywood with his children.  This is why Obama is going to the Middle East and Iraq.  This is why team Obama will look for a signature debate moment to cement his character and fortify the perception that he is someone you can trust.  They want two or three watershed, defining moments to signal to voters that they can trust this guy with the keys to the nation’s car.

Alternatively, anything that Obama does to heighten the sense that he is out of his depth or cannot be trusted could be severely damaging to his candidacy.    This is why the flip-flopping charges could turn into a serious vulnerability.

Election Environment

It is nearly impossible to overstate how negative the political environment is right now for Republicans in general and John McCain, specifically.  Let’s start with perceptions of the direction of the country.  A late June Pew survey showed that only 19% of the voting public thought that the country was going in the right direction, while 76% thought things were off on the wrong track.  The LCG average of the last six national direction polls has the average “wrong track” number at 78%.  Since we face a summer of higher gas prices and potential banking institution problems, it is conceivable that we may have a “right direction” number as low as 12-15% by Labor Day.

That could be catastrophic for Republicans in the fall.  While voter perception of Congressional Democrats is poor, our sense is that since the public is in a change mood, the President and his party will be the lightning rod for voter  anger in November.

Enough has been written about the President’s approval rating.  Suffice it to say, at 28%, Bush’s approval rating is one of the lowest ever recorded.  Astoundingly, the President’s approval rating has been below 50% for almost three years. This is a big problem for the President’s legacy…and a bigger problem for John McCain.

Even more problematic for McCain is that consumer confidence has plunged and is now at its lowest point since 1992. 

The annual average is currently at -41.  As the chart below shows, if confidence remains at its current level we will finish the year lower than any annual average - other than 1992 - since tracking began. 

Consumer Confidence Trend Since 1986

In a nutshell, the race is close and it shouldn’t be.  We have always said that McCain should not be counted out because the parameters for choosing the President are very different than Congressional voting criteria.   Additionally, the dynamics of the “choice” between two Presidential candidates can sometimes trump broad national sentiment.  In other words, McCain could beat Obama if he is viewed as a better choice, even if people want change and give Democrats another 20 seats in the House.  While this may seem obvious, there are some pundits who suggest that the current environment presents an insurmountable barrier for McCain.  That is simply not true.

Next week we are back with our updated Electoral Vote projection map and weekly assessment of the earned media battle.

The latest news is that John McCain has shuffled some staff around (and there are rumors that Mike Murphy is going to come to the rescue and help run his campaign).  While the impact of these types of things is often overstated, this certainly can’t hurt.  After all, when your first big announcement during a week devoted to the economy is about balancing the budget…well, let’s just say we’re pretty sure that that’s not the issue that’s going to catapult Senator McCain into the Oval Office.

Our sense is that Barack Obama’s key vulnerability is also his strength; that is, his appeal as a “different” kind of politician.  It’s been obvious since this election process began: the public is interested in someone who will bring about change, and the most likely agent of that type of change is someone new or different, an “outsider.”  To this point, the public thinks that that’s Barack Obama.  But Barack Obama is a politician.  A gifted politician, sure, but he’s still a politician.  And when your entire candidacy is based around the idea that you’re not a typical politician, you need to be awfully careful about doing anything, well, “typical.”  So whenever Obama does anything even remotely “political”-and he’s been doing a lot of that lately, what with his fairly transparent plays to move to the center-the McCain camp needs to pounce (to be fair, the campaign has done a bit of this recently). 

John McCain can win this election if he is seen as the “reformer” (and let’s not forget, this was McCain’s raison d’etre before Obama came along) and as the more likely change agent than Obama.  This is going to be a very tough sell.  But, again, being “independent” has been McCain’s thing for a long time.

We continue to believe that the country’s collective public opinion is mired in the longest period of discontent since Watergate.  This continues to be fed by the following (some of which are recent developments while others are ongoing):

1. The current economic recession has deepened in the last 60 days and there is no light at the end of the tunnel. The economy is now the most important electoral issue by far. Some facts:
   1. In May, sales of new homes declined for the fifth time in six months
   2. Existing home sales are down 16% from one year ago
   3. In June, consumer confidence plunged to its lowest level since 1992
   4. Average gas prices have hit $4.00 per gallon and may be as high as $5.00 per gallon in time for election day
2. While perceptions of the Iraq War have improved a bit, voters are still fatigued by the process and dissatisfied with the progress. The War remains a negative for the President and the GOP.
3. The poor economy is having a “trickle down” effect on other issues, with health care a prime example. It is yet another advantage for Democrats if concerns about health care are an important part of the consideration set this November.

We point this out not just because it suggests a problematic environment for John McCain and Republicans (everyone knows that it is) but that it tells us that there is the potential for a major electoral realignment this fall.  We will discuss this more in the coming weeks-and things are still in a state of flux-but it is something to keep in mind. 

LCG EV Projection Map

Today we launch our own Electoral College Vote projection map.  Some notes on our thought process in developing this:

1. Because we are so early in the process we have put more states into the toss-up category than most maps from other media sources.  Our rationale is that there is simply not enough data (hard or soft) in many states to make a meaningful projection.
2. There is an art to making these state calculations that goes beyond polling, including:
   1. Historical vote pattern
   2. Demographic trends
   3. Primary/Caucus turnout
   4. Gut instincts
3. In constructing this map, we used a variety of sources; in order of importance, they include:
   1. Our internal polling data
   2. Publicly-available polls
   3. States’ voting history in 2000 and 2004
   4. Demographic turnout models, based on:
      1. The 2000/2004 presidential elections
      2. Other recent races (gubernatorial, senate, etc.)
      3. This year’s primary contests

A subjective “tilt” based on other factors/issues that might influence outcomes in certain states.

Please remember that this map is just a reflection of where things stand today.  We are still more than five months from election day, and a lot will happen between now and November. 

We think that this is the best methodology for forecasting this race, given the great amount of time remaining before the election and the nature of this race: a “change” election with neither candidate positioning himself as the successor to the incumbent.

Here’s our take on where the race to 270 stands today.

States colored red or blue indicates that, if the election were held today, that state would be won by that candidate.  For example, while Pennsylvania is blue today, that doesn’t mean it can’t change over the next few months.  Orange states are too close to call given the information available at this time.

Some of these predictions may depart from conventional expectations, so let us explain what we felt were some of the “closer calls”:

1. New Hampshire (Blue):
   1. In recent years this has been seen as a battleground state: Bush beat Gore by one point in 2000 and then lost to Kerry by one point in 2004
   2. But a recent LCG survey of 250 NH registered voters had Obama +12 last week
   3. A Rasmussen survey from June 14^th showed Obama +11
   4. Demographically, New Hampshire has become increasingly liberal over the last 12 years as Boston suburbs expand north, Vermont ideology bleeds into the western part of the state and the rural population shrinks
2. North Carolina (Orange):
   1. Bush won Virginia by eight points in 2000 and 2004
   2. However, both publicly-released polls since Obama clinched show him leading (but within the margin of error); PPP has Obama +2, Rasmussen has Obama +1
   3. There is also evidence of a newly-energized Democratic electorate based on the results of the recent primary and Jim Webb’s surprise senate victory
      1. Black voters have made it to the polls at an astonishing rate and the upper-middle class/mixed-race counties in northern Virginia continue to grow rapidly compared to the southern and western areas of the state
3. North Carolina (Orange):
   1. Bush won here by at least 12 points both times
   2. But Rasmussen’s poll from June 10^th has McCain +2, also within the margin of error
   3. Like Virginia, black turnout is key in a state that is 30% non-white
      1. And North Carolina is urbanizing; Charlotte and Raleigh have become major urban centers with more affluent, liberal populations
      2. And like Florida, North Carolina has seen an increase in (generally liberal) retirees from northeastern states
      3. While we think this likely ends up in the GOP column it is in play as of June 30^th
   4. This is supported by voter registration data
      1. Approximately 130,000 Democrats have registered in the state since January, compared to 13,000 Republicans
      2. And this isn’t merely due to the more-interesting primary contest: North Carolina allows independents to vote in either primary

   The Obama campaign has made no secret of its desire to make a strong play for North Carolina, his grassroots organization is strong and the campaign has already started running television ads here

4. Indiana (Orange):
   1. This was also a Bush blowout state, as he won by 16 points in 2000 and 21 points in 2004
   2. However, a June 23^rd SurveyUSA poll had Obama +1, within the margin of error
   3. There is also the proximity to Obama’s home state
      1. And Evan Bayh’s popularity also helps: he will be actively campaigning for Obama
      2. Again, Indiana leans GOP but we’re going to consider it a battleground for the time being
5. Pennsylvania (Blue):
   1. Kerry only won by 2.5 points
   2. However, Quinnipiac ‘s June 16^th poll had Obama +12 (with n=1500) and Rasmussen’s tracking poll from June 22^nd had Obama +4 (with n=1000). Quinnipiac has been very reliable on forecasting PA races recently.
   3. Once again, this is supported by the state’s demographics; the Keystone state has a large population of inner-city blacks and white yuppies plus suburban and rural working-class, northern-state whites

Right now, it looks like there are 10 states up for grabs (worth 133 electoral votes).  Let’s call them the LCG Big Ten.  While Obama has a significant overall electoral college lead right now (242 to 163), it is far too early to attempt to assign the crucial remaining votes.  These are the races to follow closely over the coming months.

It seems obvious at this juncture that Obama has the early electoral map edge.  The striking part of last week is the offensive posture Obama took in targeting advertising in several “red” states, including  Alaska, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Carolina, and North Dakota.  He has the resources to do it and, as we have noted, at this early stage Indiana and North Carolina are potential pick-ups for Obama.

As more polls are conducted and the environment changes we will continue to update our projection.    You can always find our most recent electoral map-and other postings-by clicking the “EV Map” link at the top of our blog.

1.  There is volatility because it’s still pretty early in the process and many voters have not started to weigh the pros and cons of the candidates in a meaningful way.  So, because they are in flux the polls mirror that.

2.  Pollsters are using all sorts of different models to gauge party identification.  Using historical models of party ID may be problematic given the swing in the last 12 months toward the Democratic party and the millions of new registered voters (the vast majority of whom are Democrats).  There may be unusually elevated sampling bias depending on who has freshly harvested voter registration data and who is using older samples/panels.

3.  Some media polls are using Likely Voter screens and some are simply Registered Voter samples.  That can hugely impact poll results, as most of the big Obama leads (double-digit) are with Registered Voter samples. 4.  Media polls are notoriously cheap and do not have the methodological, sampling or weighting rigor of campaign or academic polls.  5.  As a result of all of this, at this stage of the game it’s probably best to simply average all of the polls (as we do).

 Our sense is that the Obama lead is somewhere around 7 or 8 points but trending up.

1. It tells people a bit of the Obama back-story (this is important because a sizable part of the electorate does not know a lot about him).

2. The ad “normalizes” the candidate — for voters who may be concerned by his name or by some of the things they have heard — by putting him in familiar surroundings/images.

3. The spot goes right to the heart of the patriotism issue by showing the work Obama has done for the troops and by having him say directly that he loves this country.

4. By shooting him straight into camera, Obama comes across as earnest and sincere. Authenticity is the key to this game and this spot is a winner.

First they dumped Johnson.  No arguing, defending or indecision.  Bang, done. 

Second, they launched a coordinated attack on McCain being “confused” about Iraq (McCain told Matt Lauer on the Today Show that he didn’t think that it was too important to get our troops home; rather, the more important issue was making sure that there were no more casualties).  Four different surrogates used the word “confused” in their assessment of this statement.  Joe Scarborough has been hammering this since 7:00 am, saying that the inference is that McCain is too old.   

Scarborough is right, but the tactic is working because while most of today’s papers are focusing on the Johnson departure, all of the the cable networks have run the Obama slam on McCain.

The Obama team will not be lax like the Kerry campaign.  They have learned from the Swift Boat attacks–team Kerry waited an unfathomable two weeks to respond–and will not wait even two minutes to respond.

Barack Obama should not pick Hillary Clinton as his running mate for 5 reasons:

1. Picking Hillary would not sync with Obama’s “change” theme.  The country has Clinton fatigue.  A thematic match is the most important factor for a Presidential ticket.
2. She supported the war and this would muddy one of Obama’s central policy thrusts.
3. Hillary does not give Obama a state that he would not already otherwise win.  In fact, the whole “Obama needs Hillary to win the big Democratic states” meme is completely false.  He is going to win NY, California, Illinois etc. with her or without her.
4. Bill Clinton. 
5. By far the most important reason is that picking Hillary would make Obama look weak.  He already has some perceived “wimp” issues and choosing Clinton would solidify those beliefs.  If he is going to be President he needs to do it on his own with a running mate who is a) capable of being President and b) aligned with his campaign theme and potential administration. 

Two reasons: first, there is not enough McCain-Obama trend data in key states to be truly predictive and second, there has not been enough time for voters to grapple with the dynamic of a McCain-Obama race. 

These two limitations notwithstanding, we too will launch our own “best-guess” EV map next week. 

Today marks the first day of the first full week of the general election campaign.  By the middle of the week we should start seeing some new national polling data.  As we said more than a month ago, we suspect that Obama will take a 10-15 point lead over McCain by late June.  The pendulum will swing back, but how far?

Interestingly, McCain is the first candidate to air a general election commercial.  This spot is running in swing states and the campaign has reportedly put $3 million behind the buy.

Our take on the spot is as follows:

1. This is a solid bio spot that highlights who McCain is and what he stands for in a pretty concise fashion.
2. The ad puts the focus on national security…presumably a McCain strength.  The less this election is about domestic issues the better it is for McCain.
3. As the Clinton campaign proved, however, this election will NOT be won by the candidate with the better resume.  Yes, messages like this will sway some voters to go with McCain because it paints him as the “safer” choice, but it is our belief that the majority of swing voters will need a better reason than that. 

1.  Picking Hillary would not sync with Obama’s “change” theme.  The country has Clinton fatigue.  A thematic match is the most important factor for a Presidential ticket.

2.  She supported the war and this would muddy one of Obama’s central policy thrusts.

3.  Hillary does not give Obama a state that he would not already otherwise win.  In fact, the whole “Obama needs Hillary to win the big Democratic states” meme is completely false.  He is going to win NY, California, Illinois etc. with her or without her.

4.  Bill Clinton. 

5.  By far the most important reason is that picking Hillary would make Obama look weak.  He already has some perceived “wimp” issues and choosing Clinton would solidify those beliefs.  If he is going to be President he needs to do it on his own with a running mate who is a) capable of being President and b) aligned with his campaign theme and potential administration. 

Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama by 36 points in Puerto Rico this weekend, and in two days Obama will likely become the Democratic nominee for President.  Welcome back to the bizarre world of the Democratic Presidential nominating process. 

The last two primaries will be held tomorrow in South Dakota and Montana.  It is our sense that Obama will declare that he is the nominee on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning at the latest.  While Clinton may elect to take her battle to the credentials committee at the convention, we think it is more likely that she will suspend her campaign later this week and ultimately endorse Obama. 

General Election Preview

LCG conducted a national survey of 1,000 registered voters May 26-28^th.  The following are the highlights:

• The poor economy is THE driving force in this election.  The economy is by far the most important issue for Americans, eclipsing Iraq by more than a 2 to 1 margin.  Healthcare and social/moral issues are tied for third. 
• President Bush is dead weight for nearly every Republican running in November. Bush’s favorability is at 32%.  More importantly, nearly half of voters (49%) have a “very unfavorable” opinion of the President. 
• McCain and Obama start the election with similar favorability ratings.  Both have similar unfavorable ratings (approximately 40%); there are, however, some differences among specific sub-groups:
  • McCain does better among those who are married, non-Catholic Christians and evangelicals.
  • Obama does better among those who are younger, not married, have college degrees and are non-Christians.
• In a head-to-head, Obama is beating McCain by a very narrow margin (44% to 40%).  As we have said before, we believe that Obama will get a 10-point bounce once he is officially the nominee and Clinton voters “return home.”  Having said that, this data is instructional as to where the strengths and weaknesses lie for each candidate:
  • McCain is not doing well enough among men to bridge the historical gender gap with women.  The presidential voting pattern for the last 20 years suggests that the Republican candidate needs to win among men by at least 8-12 points to make up for the party’s usual gender gap with women.  The so-called gender gap is not one-sided.  McCain wins men by four points but loses women by 10 points.  This is a problem. 
    • In fact, the problem is so severe that McCain is losing women by 12-14 points among every age cohort except for women 65+, where he is running even with Obama. 
  • McCain will not win Independents on his reputation alone.   Obama is winning among Independents by about 8 points.  Yes, McCain is favorably viewed by Independents but that is not translating into actual votes at this point in time. 
  • Obama is cutting into historical GOP success with white voters.  At this point, McCain is only winning the white vote by two points.  Compare that to 2004 when Bush beat Kerry among white voters by 17 points (58% to 41%). 
  • McCain has not yet secured the GOP base.  McCain is winning among evangelicals by 25 points, getting 56% of that vote.  However, this is 22 points below what Bush got against Kerry in 2004 (78%).  In fact, Bush captured 80% of the evangelical vote in 2000 against Gore. Certainly, a lot will change between now and November, but If this level of evangelical support continues in the summer and fall it will make a McCain victory virtually unattainable. 

It is way too early, and the contour of this campaign will shift and morph a hundred times, but all of the available evidence suggests that the Democratic nominating process has energized the electorate in favor of Obama, the national issue climate favors Obama and the trend in party identification favors the Democrats and Obama. 

People ask us the same question all the time: Can Obama really win this thing?  Sometimes the answer is staring you in the face.