LCG Election Monitor Blog http://lombardoconsultinggroup.com/wordpress Analysis and Commentary by Steve Lombardo Tue, 15 Jul 2008 20:33:22 +0000 http://backend.userland.com/rss092 en To Close the Gap Obama Must Close the Sale Nothing has really happened in the last two weeks to alter the fundamental dynamic of the race between Barack Obama and John McCain.  As a result, it is still, as of right now, Barack Obama's race to lose.  The underlying factors - right direction/wrong track, a faltering economy, dissatisfaction with ... http://lombardoconsultinggroup.com/wordpress/2008/07/15/98/ Some Random Thoughts Nothing has happened in recent weeks to alter the fundamental dynamic of the race between Barack Obama and John McCain.  As a result, it is still, as of right now, Barack Obama's race to lose.  The underlying factors-right direction/wrong track, a faltering economy, dissatisfaction with President Bush and Republicans in ... http://lombardoconsultinggroup.com/wordpress/2008/07/08/some-random-thoughts/ Projecting the Electoral College For the last two weeks Barack Obama has won the earned media battle, fueled by some McCain team gaffes and the unity tour with Hillary Clinton.  As we start to see Obama's lead move into double digits in a few national polls, it makes sense to take a quick look ... http://lombardoconsultinggroup.com/wordpress/2008/06/30/projecting-the-electoral-college/ Why National Presidential Trial-Heat Polls Vary So Much Some people have asked us why there is so much variation in the national presidential horserace polls.  My guess is that there are a number of reasons for variance from poll to poll: 1.  There is volatility because it’s still pretty early in the process and many voters have not started ... http://lombardoconsultinggroup.com/wordpress/2008/06/26/why-national-presidential-trial-heat-polls-vary-so-much/ Obama’s Bio Spot The Obama campaign launched its first general election ad today...and it works very well on a number of levels: 1. It tells people a bit of the Obama back-story (this is important because a sizable part of the electorate does not know a lot about him). 2. The ad "normalizes" the candidate ... http://lombardoconsultinggroup.com/wordpress/2008/06/19/obamas-bio-spot/ Tactical Move of the Week The Obama team is quick even when its candidate is caught flat-footed.  Obama bobbled the Jim Johnson issue this week...but then the campaign did exactly what it needed to do (and more). First they dumped Johnson.  No arguing, defending or indecision.  Bang, done.  Second, they launched a coordinated attack on McCain being "confused" ... http://lombardoconsultinggroup.com/wordpress/2008/06/12/tactical-move-of-the-week/ Why Obama Will Not—and Should Not—Pick Hillary as his Running Mate We posted this last week.  It still holds, even after Hillary's speech on Saturday. Barack Obama should not pick Hillary Clinton as his running mate for 5 reasons: Picking Hillary would not sync with Obama's "change" theme.  The country has Clinton fatigue.  A thematic match is the most important factor for a ... http://lombardoconsultinggroup.com/wordpress/2008/06/09/why-obama-will-not%e2%80%94and-should-not%e2%80%94pick-hillary-as-his-running-mate/ Too Early for Maps? Any day now, I expect ESPN and the Food Network to each have its own 2008 Electoral Vote Map.  Why not?  Everyone else does.  No fewer than half a dozen websites devoted to analyzing the 2008 EV map have cropped up in the last 60 days.  Almost every media organization, ... http://lombardoconsultinggroup.com/wordpress/2008/06/09/too-early-for-maps/ Why Obama Will Not–and Should Not–Pick Hillary Barack Obama should not pick Hillary Clinton as his running mate for 5 reasons: 1.  Picking Hillary would not sync with Obama's "change" theme.  The country has Clinton fatigue.  A thematic match is the most important factor for a Presidential ticket. 2.  She supported the war and this would muddy one of ... http://lombardoconsultinggroup.com/wordpress/2008/06/04/why-obama-will-not-and-should-not-pick-hillary/ McCain’s Vulnerabilities Exposed As I write this, I am watching Clinton strategist Terry McAuliffe on MSNBC's Morning Joe, and he's wearing a bright yellow and green Hawaiian shirt.  Even Terry knows it's over. Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama by 36 points in Puerto Rico this weekend, and in two days Obama will likely become ... http://lombardoconsultinggroup.com/wordpress/2008/06/02/mccains-vulnerabilities-exposed/