LCG Election Monitor Blog

In today’s WSJ Peggy Noonan has an excellent piece on the current state of play in this election.  I am a huge fan of Ms. Noonan’s columns; however, near the end of today’s piece she suggests that McCain should consider announcing that he will be only a one term President.  She goes on to say that this will tell voters that he “means to have a clean, serious, one-term presidency in which he will do things those under pressure of re-election do not and cannot do”. 

This is one of those ideas that, as my colleague Pete Ventimiglia says, “sounds great when you first hear it but after five minutes of poking holes in it sounds like a dud”.  It is a dud.  It would make McCain a lame duck–virtually a second term President.  And every second term since FDR has been a disaster.  After the first week of kudos what does McCain get out of it?  Nothing.  If people are not willing to vote for him under ordinary circumstances would this really change their mind?  I don’t think so. 

Voters don’t want a “way out” this year as Ms. Noonan suggests, they want a way forward.  McCain wins by leading the way.

Tags: 2008 General Election, John McCain // Add Comment »

If this were a boxing match, Obama would be in his corner getting cut treatment having lost the last three rounds (weeks).  Clinton may not be moving in for the knockout but Obama has been staggered.

Obama was on defense the entire night last night and you don’t win elections that way.  Team Clinton is on the air in PA with not one but two negative ads.

It is startling that the leader in PA (most polls have her up 5-9 points) is going negative.  The only reason has to be that polls were moving toward Obama (the gap has closed from 18 points) and Clinton is going for the jugular. 

The net effect of the Wright issue and the “bitter” comments is that Obama is no longer talking about hope and opportunity.  He is desperately off-message.  While this is still his nomination to lose, he has to find a way to get back on track or Clinton could soundly beat him next Tuesday.

Tags: Barack Obama, Campaign Spots, Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton // Add Comment »

Just when we thought it was safe to declare last week an Obama “win” (the reemergence of Bosnia really hurt Clinton), the Senator himself snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by saying the following at an April 6^th fundraiser in San Francisco (which was widely reported on Friday evening and over the weekend):

• “You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them.  And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not.  So it’s not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”

Let us be clear about the political implications of this.  While this will hurt Obama in the short term in Pennsylvania, comments like this are potentially fatal in a general election.  The problem for Obama is that it is part of a pattern, and voters look at patterns when making judgments about candidates.  The cumulative effect of these remarks-combined with the Wright controversy and comments made by Michelle Obama about it being difficult to pay for piano lessons and the fact that the only time she has been proud of this country has been during her husband’s primary and caucus victories-suggests elitism.  Voters are repelled by elitism. 

Voters look for “cues” in making their decision, and this one is as big as the San Francisco Bay Bridge.  Prior to the 2004 Presidential election, John Kerry led or tied George Bush on nearly ten major issue areas (including the economy and healthcare) but lost by more than 10 points on two deciding factors:  national security and moral/family issues.  Barrack Obama is in danger of morphing into John Kerry.  

Sensing political blood in the water, team Clinton jumped on this over the weekend.  This was an enormous political gift for them and they took advantage.   

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TeV2KzGGC38

 Just a week ago a poll conducted by Quinnipiac University showed Clinton’s lead in Pennsylvania had shrunk from 12 points to 6 points (50% to 44%).  This same poll showed that Obama had made most of his gains among white men without a college education. 

The LCG average of the last 6 polls in PA suggests that Hillary’s lead on Friday of last week was approximately 7 points. 

Obama was well within striking distance and the trend was in his direction. 

Be looking for polls taken today through Wednesday which will serve as a good indicator of the “bitter” effect. 

We will be back again next week and look for more commentary on our blog during the course of the week.

Tags: Barack Obama, Democratic Primary, New Polling Data // Add Comment »

Polling conducted immediately after Super Tuesday showed Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by ten percentage points in Ohio.  After spending $4.4 million in the state–more than twice as much as Clinton–Barack Obama lost Ohio by…ten points (54% to 44%).  Clinton’s victory was due, in large part, to her use of a populist economic message to win non-college educated whites by a staggering 40-point margin.

Like Ohio, Pennsylvania also has a large bloc of blue-collar white Democrats.  And Obama’s initial position in the state was similar to his original standing in Ohio: for all of March, he trailed Clinton by around 10 points in polls of Pennsylvania primary voters.  And just like in Ohio, Clinton’s campaign in Pennsylvania is centered on a populist economic message (watch her new twist on the much-discussed “3 a.m.” spot that shifts focus to home foreclosures and the struggling economy).

Obama, though, may have learned his lesson.  In Ohio, he spent heavily on ads targeted to groups already likely to support him (like students) and the messaging in his state-wide ads was less focused, sticking to the broader theme of “bringing change to Washington.”  This time around, Obama has been going after Clinton’s white, blue-collar base with ads that borrow from her populist economic playbook.  Polling data from the last week shows Obama has closed the gap slightly in Pennsylvania, but he still trails her by around 7 points.  He has spent $3.6 million on ad buys, more than double Clinton’s $1.4 million.  As the millions of dollars of advertising begin to flood the airwaves, we’ll need to see if Obama can make inroads in an electorate dominated by the blue-collar whites who are Clinton’s base.  If he does win–or simply exceeds expectations–in Pennsylvania, it will not be because he outspent Clinton; he’s has been outspending her all along.  Instead, the difference will be a better strategy for using his money advantage.

Tags: Barack Obama, Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton // Add Comment »

While the talk this morning will be about Mark Penn’s exit and another Hillary story fabrication, we want to focus on the general election matchup. 

There has been much discussion about the fact that John McCain is running essentially even (or, in some cases, slightly ahead) of either Obama or Clinton. 

Don’t be fooled by these general election head-to-head polls…they are a mirage.  We believe that once Clinton withdraws from the race or wrestles the nomination from Obama, there will be a substantial electoral swing away from McCain to the Democrat.  One week after the Democratic nomination is settled, we would not be surprised to see polls showing the Democrat with a double digit lead.   This is more likely if Obama is the nominee but it is nevertheless a probable outcome.  Here is why:

1.   We are mired in the most protracted period of voter discontent since Watergate.  Voters are angry and they want change.  The latest NYT/CBS poll has the “wrong track” number at 81%.  You almost have to keep repeating that number over and over for it to sink in.

2.   The key drivers of voter dissatisfaction are the economy and Iraq, and neither is likely to improve substantially in the next 6 months.  Nearly 8 in 10 Americans believe the country is worse off than 5 years ago and only 4% say it is better (NYT/CBS poll March, 2008).  Only 21% of the respondents in that poll say the economy is in good condition.  That is the lowest number since late in 1992.  Median household income has yet to return to inflation-adjusted 1999 levels.  Voters believe we are in a recession. 

3.   While Congressional approval numbers are extraordinarily low, voter antagonism is focused almost entirely on President Bush.  As pollster Mark Blumenthal notes, Bush’s approval rating has been below 50% for 3 years and below 40% for two years.  The LCG average of the President’s approval rating has it somewhere between 20%-31%.  The downward slope of the trend line is startling.  This is a big problem for Republicans and, by extension, John McCain.

4.   Dissatisfaction with the President and the direction of the country has driven the erosion of the GOP brand.  Brand association weakens when people are disappointed with the product (or service performance) and confused by the brand attributes.  All of the above has happened to the GOP.  Voters are less inclined to trust Republicans on a host of issues and are unsure about what they represent (the old hallmarks of lower taxes, social values and national security strength have all but disappeared).  The Pew Research Center released a study last week showing that Democrats have an 8-point advantage in Party ID.  

A January Gallup poll showed Democrats with an 11-point Party ID lead (51% to 40%).  Additionally, there is data to suggest that Democrats are holding a double-digit lead in key swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.  In terms of party identification, all three were essentially even in 2004 and Democrats now have at least a 10% margin in each.

5.   The generic presidential ballot polling shows a generic Republican presidential candidate running anywhere from 10-15 points behind a generic Democratic presidential candidate.  A poll taken by NBC/WSJ in March showed the generic Democrat with a 13-point lead (50% to 37%).

We believe that once the Democratic race is settled, Clinton voters will move to Obama (or vice-versa) and independents will split 2-to-1 in favor of the Democrat.  This will give the Democratic nominee an immediate 10-12 point lead. 

This is not to suggest that John McCain cannot win.  We believe he still can.  However, GOP strategists should be prepared for the inevitable swing to the Democrat.  The question will be whether it swings back.

Tags: 2008 General Election, John McCain, New Polling Data // Add Comment »

Clinton’s latest bout with the truth and the campaign’s lack of fact checking is more serious than it may appear.  Her repeating of a hospital and insurance story that has now been determined to be false is very problematic for the campaign.  There is a cumulative effect to these things and today may be the tipping point for Clinton.  My sense is that we will start to see more polling data showing a closing gap in PA.  If she wins by less than 10 points…it will be over. 

Tags: Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton // Add Comment »

While Hillary Clinton is performing well in pre-election polls in Pennsylvania it is worth noting that her “negatives” have risen over the last 30 days.  While a recent Gallup poll shows the Senator with 53% favorable and 44% unfavorable – a 9% net positive — others show her closer to a 1 to 1 ratio of favorable/unfavorable.  Yes, this is among all voters but it demonstrates her general election problem.

For example a CBS poll in mid-March showed Clinton at 39% favorable and 41% unfavorable.  Our averaging of the last 4 national polls shows Clinton with nearly 45% unfavorable.  It is very difficult for her to sustain this level of unfavorable opinion and convince superdelgates that she should win the nomination.  

Tags: Democratic Primary, Favorability Ratings, Hillary Clinton, New Polling Data // Add Comment »

While the polling data is slow to catch up, the last two weeks have been decisively negative for Barrack Obama.  He is still likely to caputre the nomination but the problems generated by the Wright controversy are taking a toll on his campaign. 

The Wright episode hurts him in three ways; 1) it takes him seriously off message (so much so that he went on vacation),  2) it is getting traction because it suggests to some voters that Obama may not be as patriotic as he should be and 3) it raises prickly and potentially damaging racial issues.  We believe that Obama’s speech - while eloquent - did little to put out this fire.  And more importantly the speech may not alleviate voter concerns.  Voters did not need a speech about race in America, they needed a speech explaining why Obama allowed himself to be so close to Wright.  The issue strikes at the heart of his judgement.  And that matters to voters.   

Tags: 2008 General Election, Barack Obama, Democratic Primary // Add Comment »

We’re kidding, of course.  But there is a lot of new survey data out today with hypothetical general election match-ups between John McCain and his two potential Democrat challengers: Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.  Now, this is all nonsense, of course, because at this stage it’s far too early to get any sort of genuine read on what will happen in the fall.  But these numbers will be scrutinized by wavering Democrats trying to determine the stronger general election candidate.  In two new surveys McCain has opened up a slight lead over Obama, which is significant because a number of previous surveys have had Obama leading McCain.  This might be a blip, it might not mean a thing, or it may be the start of a trend…we’ll just have to wait and see.  But if it is a trend-and if Clinton’s numbers against McCain start to improve-then she can start to make the argument that she would be the stronger general election candidate.  Will that be enough to overcome Obama’s delegate lead?  We’ll see.

Tags: 2008 General Election, Hillary Clinton, John McCain // Add Comment »

Several months ago, a number of national news organizations—including the New York Times and the New Yorker—raised questions about Barack Obama’s ties to Rev. Jeremiah Wright.  While those stories made a bit of noise among DC insiders, for the most part their electoral impact has been little to none.  Until now.

An ABC News review of dozens of publicly-available sermons by Pastor Wright, until recently Obama’s pastor at the Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago, has produced some alarming videos of the pastor in action.

This is a good example of how the jump from print to video can cause a substantial change in perception and impact.  Even if what is being said is nothing more than inflammatory religious oratory, the visceral power of video makes this potentially very damaging for Obama.  This may be a game-changer, if not in his primary battle with Clinton but in a potential general election contest.

Despite his vague “repudiation” of Pastor Wright’s comments, it will be very difficult to distance himself from his pastor of 20 years who married him and baptized his two children.  So far Obama has been able to tread carefully around issues of race with a message of unification and post-racial politics.  However, when the man who inspired the title of his political manifesto, The Audacity of Hope, is seen firsthand as someone espousing divisiveness and hate it may be impossible for Obama not to address issues of race and the black experience directly.

Tags: 2008 General Election, Barack Obama // Add Comment »